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    With a PE of 14.22 on SPY - A Crash is Impossible

    Markets will behave in pretty much the same way as they always have, though I expect that they will become subject to more stringent regulation. What I meant is that the perception of valuation and risk will change. Old models that were used to determine those factors will be changed thoroughly...
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    With a PE of 14.22 on SPY - A Crash is Impossible

    We're going through a period where popular paradigms about the application of capital are being reconsidered. Old methods of valuation will be discounted and this will include the use of quantative ratios in the field of fundamental analysis.
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    They stopped watering the lawns

    The name "Envy Lawn" gave me a good chuckle. It reminds me of Sayyid Qutb, the founder of radical islamism, who's hatred of American culture culminated in a detailed description of his disgust with the way Americans tended to their lawns. So remember, they hate you not for your freedom...
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    Goldman, Merrill Almost `Junk,' Their Own Traders Say

    What's the point of buying CDO insurance on Goldman's debt with Morgan as your counter party? It doesn't matter if it's Goldman or Morgan that fails, if one of the big investment banks fail you'll end up standing in line with the other creditors anyway.
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    Adventures in the garden of good and evil

    Using reversals is a tough job for someone who's starting out. I'll advice a beginner to enter on point 3's on increasing PRV and to exit when a FTT is perceived. It's a pretty safe way to trade and manages to capture the majority of a trend if performed well. Once you determine that you're...
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    Real Estate Trends

    What are rental yields on a property like that? If it yields 8% a year after property taxes I can easily understand why it receives so many bids. Downturn or not, a property that pays off its 15yr fixed @ 5.5% is a good investment to have.
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    Iterative Refinement

    Someone asked me by PM if I use the Z Liffe as the equivalent replacement of the YM when trading the ES? The answer is yes. The YM leads when it comes to translating volume into price movement. I believe this occurs because the contract isn't as thickly traded as the ES and price is divided...
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    Iterative Refinement

    I'm using Z liffe futures on a 2 minute chart as a leading indicator. This works quite well as volume increases tend to translate faster into price movement on the Z.
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    Iterative Refinement

    Is anyone trading the FDAX? I switched from trading the ES to trading FDAX for three reasons: 1. Better commissions. If you take into account the larger contract size of the FDAX I pay roughly one fifth of the commissions I would pay trading the ES. One FDAX contract equals about four ES...
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    F it, I want to move to Europe

    These are excellent observations concerning women. Female sexuality consists of errecting artificial barriers that she longs for to be broken through by a man. It's a simple game of playful submission that men often fail to understand because it clouds her intentions. Though the longing...
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    F it, I want to move to Europe

    If you're a trader and have the ability to travel you don't have to pay taxes anywhere. You're an Australian citizen so you will not be taxed on foreign income if you're no longer a resident. Move your official residence to one of the world's tax havens. Live in Europe as a tourist, not as an...
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    NYC is so overrated

    I did some real estate scouting in the Upper West / Harlem area while my girlfriend went shopping. This area is overrun by developers and there seems to be alot of inventory on the market. Compared to the asking price for real estate in this area rents there are pretty low. A decent rent to pay...
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    NYC is so overrated

    I just got back from a two week stay in NYC. One thing I noticed is that the city feels really safe. NYC is actually the first large city where I didn't feel the need to be constantly on guard for pick pockets when taking the subway. Streets seemed pretty clean too, at least when compared to...
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    Government Employees Waste Millions of Tax Payer Dollars on Ipods, Dating fees.

    The fun part is that this audit only concerns a small sample of USD 2.7 million. I'm glad I'm not taxed.
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    Where will BSC open?

    It's likely to open at a 10-15% discount to 0.05473 shares of JPM.
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    daytrade Eurex Bund versus Globex 10 Year Note..which is better and why?

    It's not off topic, good advice is universal. If increasenow wants to daytrade I advice him to choose a liquid instrument with low commissions. Bund, 10yr, DAX or FTSE futures would be a good choice here, NQ if he doesn't have the capital. He should concentrate on this one instrument and...
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    POLL: TRADERS - What is your fiscal leaning?

    Very libertarian.
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    Can the Fed Go Bankrupt?

    Central banks publish profit figures that are invariably well below the amounts implied by calculations of their seigniorage revenue. Most of the difference is due to the impairment of central bank balance sheets by the acquisition of substandard assets and of liabilities not matched by assets...
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    Bill Miller gives worst advice ever in 2006

    Buying stocks that trade below net asset values is but one way to be provided with a margin of safety. A better way is to determine all of the risk factors associated with a security and then conclude if the discount is appropriate or not. After all, buying a discounted cash flow only makes...
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