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No, the Dow hasn't passed 10,889. I suffered a brief brain malfunction. But it's still not at a typical correction level. Because the Dow really likes to follow the Elliott road map I would bet on the 10,889 top. But I wouldn't trade it until I saw exhaustion and reversal in the chart.

In EW terms last spring's low was the beginning of Wave 3 of an impulse wave from the Oct. 02 low. The third wave is supposedly never the shortest, but not necessarily the longest. It would typically extend to 10,889 on the Dow but could also extend to 12,030. It's gone past the former and not...

All of us clever economists know that employment statistics are a trailing indicator with very considerable lag. Today's numbers (which will be hugely revised like all the previous ones) reflect more the consequences of the Clinton-Rubin strong-dollar policy than anything now being done at the...

As a matter if interest Elliott Wave Theory would place the OEX near the top of Wave 3 of an impulse wave starting at the 384.96 low, with a likely top near 591.00. However the wave could also extend to 655.00. Hence shorting at 591.00 without other evidence of exhaustion could be a...

Elliott was both an accountant and a numerologist? Even so, the fact that Benoit Mandelbrot appears independently to have reached conclusions quite similar to Elliott persuades me that the failings of EWT are in the practitioners rather than the theory. Elliott's Wave Principle is essentially...

I'm glad you made money. On the other hand, simply buying CAT back on July 23 and holding it till Jan 5/04 produced a profit of 20.31 from close to close.

The geometry seems likely to take LOUD above 2.85 before it corrects. The correction could then bottom at 2.12 to 2.25. Does this agree with your analysis?

Reversing wouldn't work for me. Before I enter a (swing) trade I need to see (a) proof that prices are trending (b) recent support or resistance close enough to give me an acceptable stop and (c) an initial profit objective that, together with the stop, provides an acceptable risk-reward. So...

I'm satisfied that randomness and independence in S&P trading are figments of Paul Samuelsohn's learned imagination. Clearly the price action of the S&P 500 is chaotic (in the complex Markov-chain sense) and the serial dependency of prices can be not just observed but quantified. However I do...

The system reprted the first one had failed. Second one is better written anyway... :)

Doesn't look overbought to me. Peaks are still within 2 sigmas from the mean. Lots of momentum and only mild divergence in the MACD - my configuration still has a positive histogram. It may slow or stumble but I think it's going higher. A Harami line or Dark Cloud would mean more than the Doji.

The Doji isn't so strong a downturn warning, at least not in itself. A Harami line would mean more, with the star within the range of the previous long candle. More important, the $INDU isn't yet overbought - sigma hasn't exceeded the 95th percentile of the local data. The high ADX value shows...

Ouch! hard to place any kind of butterfly with that spread! But the volatility is good. Maybe leg into a diagonal calendar spread...?

I don't think so. The intraday (60 min) price action seems to point to a high somewhat over $4.75 before it corrects. Present momentum precludes shorting. However if optionable, SIRI could offer a reverse ratio butterfly play with a small profit at worst and a very nice one at best.

Agreed. And again the most cursory analysis disproves the notion of a Martingale (EMH) process. My point about Brownian noise embodies the same view - i.e. that the market is a Markov process. An important corollary of this is that the markets are also fractal, self-similar in different time...

Agreed. And again the most cursory analysis disproves the notion of a Martingale (EMH) process. My point about Brownian noise embodies the same view - i.e. that the market is a Markov process. An important corollary of this is that the markets are also fractal, self-similar in different time...

Harrytrader is right. Empirical study of the markets quickly discredits all of the EM hypotheses: weak, semistrong and strong. It is rare, if not impossible, to find a normal distribution pf prices. Actually there is one exception. If the entire "strip" of contracts in an energy market such as...

This is nice work! This method exploits trend and volatility with minimal risk. Very nice! Provided of course that you can keep the cost of the flips under control.

That would be a useful indicator! Theoretically it's possible but I haven't heard of anyone offering it as a study.

This is not easy. Volatility, momentum and time frame are the constituent factors, I think, but no one study or indicator combines them all. Wouldn't the intraday stochastic and MACD give a pretty good quantification? I once cobbled together a homemade indicator that I called the REI (Range...