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14k is unlikely. The market is already expecting the Fed to keep interest rate as is. Most likely it will be so, and the market may rally a little, but not up to 14k. Perhaps, later but not near-term.

You might not have to go on strike for more than a week, I think. Market is a little irrational, right now. The economy shows signs of slowly down, yet, the market rallies like crazy. Inflation will keep the Fed from lowering rate any time soon. No sense for market to make new highs...

This rally is a little weak if you look at the past two weeks. The market didn't go up that much. It crawled up like a snail. All these acquisition activities added fuel to this market rally. Market not going down b/c no one is selling in mass, that's why. Seems like most people are...

benysl, Nice analysis! There are basically three risks associated with this trade. 1) Market may go down(gap down) so fast that you can't hedge your trade properly with futures at 1255. (think of 9/11) 2) Volatility may go up so high at 1255 to make the 2 calls cost more than 25...

Options are contracts, which are legally binding until expire. Even if a stock is halted from trading, you still can exercise the options or be assigned.

Your initial margin is lower than that of a naked position, right? How much is it per contract? I am trying to calc. the ROR.

Did you trade the replication Riskarb? Volume at 1200 strike today was over 54k contracts. Too much of a coincidence, so i figure if it's not you, then, who could it be? LOL!

Trying to make a little profits on someone's work, Riskb? ;)

No wonder you still haven't reply two of my PMs. Message overload? Anyway, since you're busy i can look up the forex stuff myself.

"I noticed that too (calls are more expensive than puts) and tried on a saxobank simulated account (where we can adjust the strike price of the option with lot of precision) to create a slightly out of the money synthetic long spot gold using a call and a put that have exactly same cost so no...

Also, beat you to it. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=71967&perpage=6&pagenumber=2

Even with a 50 BPS hike, i think the market will still rally. It is future direction and guidance the market needs from the Fed. The economy and the market are in a critical stage, that's why the Fed needs to provide some sort of encouragements in order to keep things afloat. If the Fed...

Trend day? No way! When trend is recognized, it's a little late b/c of the huge surge. Trading after the surge could be dangerous b/c of all the trapping going on. It's tough due to all the volitility. Stop loss can be easily taken out. I only trade today b/c of the probability of a...

Could rally back to or even break all time high. Then after, another wave of bear market or consolidation, i think. Anyone shares my view? Reasons pull back after rally to high: 1) High oil price (will probably stay high for a while) = steady inflationary pressure and higher...

Should have enter at close yesterday. I didn't anticipate the market to go up that much on opening. I went long 30 mins before the huge surge, but caught only half the move. Look at the bear trap going on now!

I love trading tomorrow too. Mildly bullish no matter what happens.

In regard to your question on futures margin, the answer is no. Futures brokers do not charge interest b/c nothing is being purchased on margin (you're not borrowing their money). Futures are traded in a margin account, but no money is being borrowed, so no interest is charged. Actually, it...

If you trade options, you will find that calls are more expensive than puts most of the time (all else equal). Your synthetic will result in a net debit, which will usually be equal to the futures premium you can collect. I know so b/c I have already checked it. Alot of people often...

You need to put in a few hrs to study future pricing. You still don't understand. Pick up any decent finance book on cost of carry and read a little. However, on the bright side, futures sometimes trade above or below its fair value, giving you an opportunity to arb. The competition is...

Have you done a research on fair-value pricing of future premium, yet? Premium (or cost of carry) = Risk free interest rate - dividend So, buying ETF and selling future to collect premium would be the same as putting your money (money you use to buy ETF/cash) into risk free interest...