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"Swinging for the Fences" has it's own unique pitfalls. No shame in being consistent and grinding out income - as far as hedge funds and bank desks and proprietary trading firms go it's actually greatly preferred. If you are truly consistent, you will on occasion get those monster days.

We still have some work to do on the downside to break down this strong uptrend we've been in since May of 2020. If you're trading crude, you're trading the stock market. OPEC + still has a say in the matter as well. The retracements we've seen in the S&P 500 have followed neatly with the...

What's funny about that is that the amount of actual legit North Sea production has been on the decline and European Refiners have been increasingly buying US crudestocks. To the point that ICE wants to include North American Crude into the Brent contract specifications, but nobody can agree...

These days, many economists would argue that decoupling from Gold gave the United States huge unprecedented leverage to manipulate its currency to its advantage.

It’s a VWAP financially settled contract so it’s not deliverable was simply my point. And yes, it needs to track BTC for the futures to work. I’m glad that you’re doing a legit arb !

If you're trading oil, you're trading the stock market.

I think your example is closer to an arbitrage than some other examples I’ve seen. Having said that - you need to be able to explain the persistent price divergence between the two. How does the price differential converge or diverge over time? If you are relying upon the non-fungible...

Two "little guy" arbs that very much come to mind were: 1. A Bank Desk Trader in Chicago in the 90's who saw an arbitrage opportunity involving the CME Yen futures - he quit his Bank job and traded it himself. Made several million, then got clipped pretty good. Walked away with 4 million. and...

Did the trade you are referring to require an ISDA or really serious counterparty capitalization (OTC) ?

And you're missing the point about basis risk because you're preoccupied with the particulars of the May 2020 CL contract.

There's been some talk on and off again here on ET about Arbitrage. And from what I've seen, the term is frequently mangled. Legitimate Arbitrage is as rare as hen's teeth - and disappears very quickly. One example might be buying BTC on one exchange for $XYX and selling it two seconds later...

I knew who started this thread before clicking on it. Predictable.

The OPEC + production cut news was much more market moving last week than any of the data you are citing.

You've got big commercials already positioned for this. You've got Hedge Funds buying satellite photos of Oil Storage Tanks ( the lids collapse as they draw down ). You've got very, very good private subscription services like Platts that specialize in modeling this information for their...

DRW has set up a separate entity (Cumberland) to attract and homologate counterparties for their Crypto trading business. https://cumberland.io/onboarding

Are you willing to relocate to the Chicago or NYC area ? Are you willing to migrate everything over to another firm's trading system and risk platform?

Well, I guess that settles it then. Hedge Funds and Proprietary Firms are only interested in scaling the living shit out of a trade. You trade it yourself until it goes away. Because like all arbitrage it will and certainly sooner than you'd like. Run the car yourself until the wheels fall...

If you grow yourself organically and secure your employees with NDA's you'll be much better off IMHO. If you partner with a bigger firm - your employees and your software and any IP you have will now be theirs no matter how you structure the relationship. I've seen this many times with...

The 2008 action from the US Treasury and the US Federal Reserve was massive. Mega. Unprecedented. It shocked the world. And it gave other Central Bankers the confidence to coordinate their actions with the US Fed. And the Fed changed the way that Economists and Politicians look at the way...

So to summarize: if you look at the Bank of Japan in the 1990's and the Japanese economy since; and you look at the US Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England in 2008 and the American and European economies since: you see deflationary pressure. The Fed has been under its 2% inflation target for...