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Thanks algofy, I am trading CL.

Handle123, Thank you for response. I didn't think of it that way. In my stats so far I have 54 breakeven trades for $3 round trip commission, where I breakeven at a loss profit of -$3. So now I take those 54 losses and add to the total loss column count. So number of losses goes up by 54?

Handle123, so if you take the tick in ES, would you count this a win in the win column of your spreadsheet or whatever you use to track your performance? Thanks

Thank you so much stevegee58, So from your example average reward (38.7114) to average risk (55.5109) ratio is 0.7? So my stats are incorrect. I will go back and re-calculate and post here. for an update.

Thank you smile. This is the article I used to calculate expectancy. I was just not sure about the Risk vs Reward calculations I used when calculating Expectancy. Should average reward be = Total Wins / #wins Should average risk be = Total Loss / # losses ?

Thanks birzos for responding. I provide advice to others if and only if I believe the advice i will offer will ethically help the trader asking. If you review all my over 300 posts, they give logical advice and recommendations to the OP that is asking what I believe will simply help them. I...

Thank you Robert for response. Can you please explain a bit more about why not use Expectancy or average reward vs risk? I still would like to confirm if my calculations are correct, atleast. Every where I read states expectancy metric is up most important. All the other metrics you...

Thanks Gotcha, I agree MAE and MFE is only for time in trades. Therefore, I also calculate MAX Win and MAX loss if stopped out or Breakeven and price goes in my favor. Call it Max trade potential. I do this to eventually track the potential of a winner. I don't record it if price goes way...

Hello, Can please request some help calculating my average reward vs risk, and Expectancy of the two systems I have been backtesting. My first time calculating both, and a bit confused. Just want to be sure. Below is the attachment. I think I calculated average reward vs risk wrong. I used...

Thank you and great example and logical thoughts. The breakeven concept is a challenging one. So I just keep it simple and pick +tick distance that I will bring my stop loss to breakeven to once this distance is hit. Then I simply wait for breakeven stop loss to be hit or profit target to be...

Thank you Algofy, Appreciate all the opinions and logical reasoning from this post. I agree with speedo here. Counting breakeven as a loss skewed my risk vs reward, and win% loss% for the number of trades I collected. Counting the breakeven will be subtracted from the total PL. The win and...

Thanks speedo, So you don't include breakeven as a loss in your win to loss ratio, or expectancy?

Thank you all. I went back and include all breakeven trades as loss in the loss column. Now my win to loss ratio is more accurate cause commission is a loss.

Thank you Handle123, I didn't know that. So if commission per trade is -$12, that counts as a loss even though its a breakeven trade?

Hello, When calculating win to loss ratio, risk vs reward, expectancy, etc, do you consider breakeve trades (money loss due to breakeven commission) as a loss? Thanks

Good comment Xela. Can you touch on this a bit more? I have collected data on about 300 trades? How can I gain statistical confidence in this as well for my next 300 trades? A book reference will be appreciated if no time to explain to me. Thank you so much.

Great comment. Can you give me an example of Expectancy as it applis for long term profitability? Say for past trades or so. Thanks

Rufus Mrehin, Correct, if you have an idea, backtest it for X amount of trades. But, there is soo many different variables, so keep it simple and pick a few options. Or record every trade you take and the "what if, I had this.." scenario.

Hello, Yes, you are right. Yes, think of the $1500 as your account balance that follows you as your account increases. Don't ever lose more then $1500 or you will fail the combine. As i just recently did cause my system started to drawdown . Think hard about how your trading plan will endure...

Yes, i understand overnight. Sometimes my brain goes dead at times and forget to simplify and not try to rush profitability.