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That supply is dependent on high prices. Shale is extremely expensive source. Prices come down, supply goes down.

That's roughly equivalent to betting on a strong and more or less global recession. Might be right, might not be, time will tell.

I don't see where the scandal is. Anytime institutions and/or individuals are going to "self report" numbers, you'd have to be an idiot to think they don't shade the number to their own advantage. It's always been that way, it will always be that way, LIBOR "accuracy" has been an ongoing...

Everybody knew about "False LIBOR".

Does that not mean your servers also have to have access to the strategies? (Personally, I don't care, but I have a feeling others feel they should. :))

Without programming, aren't the algos limited to "been there, done that"?

If the Germans can't organize Europe, I'd say the odds of Chinese and Russians organizing each other are pretty darn low. IMO.

Not sure what the problem is. With all those orders floating around, anybody who wanted to buy or sell it would have found plenty of willing counterparties.

Nobody is "deleveraging the private sector". You have a knack for consistently getting cause and effect exactly backwards.

It wouldn't be a cycle if it did. ;)

Anytime you're "expecting" a straight move, you've done something wrong by definition. IMO.

Putting "TM"s on common, age-old concepts? Seriously? As far as I'm concerned, "The Count" is a caped dude from Sesame Street. :p

The natural order of things is to over-consume and over-leverage - it's built into the evolutionary process. Asking "why" this sort of thing happens is like asking why an apple falls to the ground instead of floats to the sky.

The crash won't come until they think they've successfully avoided the crash.

Yep. Anybody who thinks maintaining a home and family without aid of mod cons isn't "real work" is delusional. The "one income golden days" meme is a fraud.

There was only a very brief moment in history when that was true. Outside of that tiny tiny window, both men and women worked their asses off just to make ends meet.

They learned nothing from 1999/2000?

I can only imagine the level of screaming if they did this, as premiums are passed through to traders.

It takes 16ms just to update the screen the dude is staring at. And what just updated is a full frame (or more, if you're using a "tv" instead of a "monitor") behind what's coming in - meaning you're 32ms behind before it's even registered in your brain that something on the screen has changed...

What you are describing aren't advantages of legging, they're advantages of guessing market direction correctly. And if you're able to do that, why mess around with spreads at all? Leverage-up and go for the jugular.