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What do you mean by "will crash"? NBER officially called the US recession this morning, starting from December 2007.

In all seriousness, what is the point in spending money hedging against a Treasury default? If the US defaults, it's global mayhem, and you're looking at perhaps 80% of the G20 defaulting on their own sovereign debt. There won't be a counterparty left alive to pay off on the policy...

Tbills are at 0%.

That's rather non-commital language. Regardless, it's already been below that - twice - in the past few weeks.

If the savings rate is zero, the "last penny" is long gone, which should be a clue that they are spending someone else's pennies. Until that supply runs out, party on, Garth!

Very interesting number. The rise is roughly in the noise, but even acknowledging that, it is going to be a surprise to many that the number isn't less than zero.

The same way I would explain Enron bouncing after all the news came out - there are always people willing to gamble on a DCB. And I don't mean that in a derogatory way - did the same thing with Fannie - there's nothing wrong with trying it as long as you keep your downside covered against any...

I never am, and I size accordingly.

Only problem with that theory is that gold DOES NOT hold its value. An ounce of gold today - despite a bubble-like run-up - despite "the worst economic crisis in 50 years" - has *less* purchasing power than it did 300 years ago. Or two hundred years ago. Or even 35 years ago. Etc. Gold has...

The odds of General Motors surviving in a recognizable form are, IMO, radically different from the odds of GM surviving in a non-zero form. Figure out which one you actually believe has a future, and trade accordingly.

Ok. What's your downside target?

Absolutely no problem running Tradestation on OSX under Parallels/VMWare - lots of people do. Just make sure you have lots of RAM, whatever platform you decide on. :) None of this is to suggest Linux is in any way "bad" - I'm agnostic on platform issues and believe people should use whatever...

Windows sucks and I have no idea why people put up with all the hassle for nothing-special capability. No argument there. Also no argument that for some kinds of development you may well be better off with one of the major Linux distros. The OP wasn't particularly explicit about what the...

With the caveat that you didn't specify what you actually need to do with the laptop... Unless you're in the kernel tinkerer class and building your own software (and even if you are probably), the best Unixy laptop you can get is a MacBook Pro. Wonderfully useful GUI on top, BSD underneath...

IMO, the rearview mirror has to extend further back than that. We just went through a historical dump - for clues on how high this can pop - even assuming this remains a bear market - it would make sense to look at the aftermath of previous historical dumps. And most of those are pre-1994.

I'd be right there with you on the InTrade thing. There is no point in arguing logic with the tin foil crowd, best to ignore them unless there's a way to make some coin betting against them.

Because voters insisted that they do.

Probably because there are so few people around now who were also around during the last "truly historic" episode. Some lessons just need to be learned the hard way...

That's the operative phrase in there. At any given moment, there is both a lot of negative news and a lot of positive news. The bottom line on what they're saying is that once it's gone up "a lot", we'll be able to find all kinds of justifications for why it did so (note: past tense) - even...

It can't get green - driving lots of things and lots of people lots of miles is inherently un-green. But IMO it's worth at least considering regardless, as a means of reducing reliance on imported energy. Which in turn should have a beneficial knock-on effect on defense costs. The NIMBY...