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I'm not going to defend the unholy alliance that Dion put together - most L voters I know are extremely pissed at the thought of having NDP involved in policy decisions. Nor will I defend Harper's poor political calculation that resulted in him overstepping the reach of his minority standing in...

Unfortunately AAPL's stock isn't "steadily declining", it's well above its lows and is higher today than it was two months ago. I would think anyone actually trading the thing would be aware of such a basic fact. Would love to pick this thing up in the $60s, but the company has one of the...

Stones don't drop "steadily". They fall like rocks.

That's a ridiculous "point" to make for a stock that has been sinking for nearly a year and is already 60% off its peak. Johnny. Come. Lately. Cheers, mate.

Well that's interesting - auto bailout is now a White House priority. Round and round we go...

Are you unaware that during the Depression gold was confiscated at a state-determined price? If you really think things will get as bad as the 30s, then gold is pretty much the LAST thing you want to hold.

Differences make a market, and I respect the opposing argument, but IMO it is a very low-odds bet that a million-plus folks are going to be allowed to hit the unemployment lists in a short period of time. This isn't about logic or financial sense anymore - this is about social stability at a...

My apologies - your numbers are fine, brain fart on my end. Using the strikes you mentioned I get a YTM of around -7%. I'll shut up and listen now. :)

I've been hearing some variant on that rumor for nearly 20 years. I'm sure there's guys older than me here who've been hearing it for even longer. Do you have an argument for why this time it's different?

It appears commodities as a class as still about 30% above the long-run average throughout the 90s and into the early 2000s. Is there a compelling argument for commodity prices to *not* return to those levels?

Not sure how you arrived at the negative interest rate implication. If the Fed is as serious as it seems to be about ZIRP, those prices are really not that out of the question (the closer yield gets to zero, the more vertical the price changes). It's an aggressive play, for sure, but not...

It's been - what - nine months since Bear went tits-up? Seems to me the problems have been in plain view for a long, long time. Whether folks chose to see it or not is an entirely different question...

Tbills at 0%. Ten-year under 2%. Seems to me "next" already arrived.

I wonder if folks looking for long-term, big-dollar short profits on AAPL have thought about the implications of such a bet for the broader market. This is a company with one of the best balance sheets in the world - I have no problem seeing it touch $60 - or roughly 2x cash - but then we're...

You did no such thing, friend. What you basically said was "it's going down unless it's going up" - which is no call at all.

I'm looking at GM leap puts. Basically, shorting the nearest OTM leap put leaves you exposure of $0.60 a share in the case that the company really does GTZ. So putting aside all the reasonable fundamental analysis etc - given that even AIG and Fannie are still trading above those levels - is...

Bad assumption. NOBODY has a "pretty good handle" on the true state of affairs.

Have a Sony receiver from 1973, found it at a garage sale. Top of the line back then, when Japanese were still over-engineering to overcome the kind of reputation we currently attribute to Chinese manufacturing. Weighs literally three times as much as any modern 48-channel 8 gigawatt piece...

I don't see any redeeming features in this company. After seeing the latest financials and BS press releases, I wouldn't even buy it with YOUR money. ;) Cheers!

Bernanke now being quoted as saying Fed is considering buying large quantities of long-dated Treasuries in the open market, presumably to drive long rates even further down. The 10-year is in the 2s, not really clear to me how moving ZIRP to the long end of the curve is going to be...