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One can calculate the expected move- Taleb and Sinclair provide some formulas in his book but its basically similar to adding variances- nothing crazy. But even that only gives an expected move of about $6. O well if he made money on it, good for him.

Kinda cemented what I had a hunch on. As retail, it's ridiculously hard to make money unless youre extremely well capitalized (cant put a number on it but say several hundred thousand?) I've read the book- I scripted my first volatility cone after reading the part on it. I didn't read it...

I asked if gamma neutral or other strategy is taken (with regards to predicting a regime change) . It wasn't simply if you are gamma neutral. I also did say I didn't even know if the question I was asking was the right question. So I guess if people don't test for a change in market direction...

Parabolic rise? So stocks aren't meant to rise that fast? Well it has so that premise is false. And even if it does correct it will most likely begin another "parabolic rise" from that point onwards- again falsifying dubious claims. And even if it eventually rises far slowly or even...

You mean the vertical that I entered into?

How do you test whether or not a market is about to reverse? (without technical analysis) And if you don't, then perhaps the strategy is to be gamma neutral (or some other hedged strategy...) ? That was the gist of it...

I just had a thought. I keep hearing buzz about market going into a short term correction. I mean I think it's safe to say its only a matter of when and not if. How would one test for this quantitatively? And no, the "stochastics" plot ( which has nothing to do with stochastics or stochastics...

If you're long contracts and haven't made much money but your original hypothesis might still hold AND your capital isn't tied up AND you don't have other trades you think you want to make, disregard the "tiredness". Stick to it. I've held some calls for the past two weeks- keeps...

Almost s#!t my pants when I just checked the stock Luckily, I had my positions closed around noon. So no worries :D whew!

High Vol note on PCLN High Implied vol going into earnings next week. Have been verticle-ing this baby for the past week and a half. Sold a 595/560 weekly vertical that expires today with heavy theta decay. Very speculative. But I've netted more than $2000 on this over the past week and...

My Excel DDE freezes too.... I hate it. I'll be working on a java implementation of it and see if it is smoother that way.

It's everywhere. Yahoo finance or even Google. You can download it straight to excel too. Or if you have some programming skills you can do it within seconds because the link to the data always has some sort of regular format. Google " excel macro yahoo finance"

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Made my day... apart from the $1000 I cha-chinged from a vertical... Speaking of scientists... I believe it was Galileo's bday last week. Here in ET, the sun still goes around the earth...

I think newwurldmn asked why you thought it would go up $10... What was your rationale?

VXX is a futures contract for VIX. I wouldn't trade futures if you haven't even traded stocks or options. The symbol SPX is a futures contract. But its options are tradable under either the index as the underlying or the index as the future. Now if that didnt make sense to you, learn...

Well there's two of them- realized and implied. Realized is what you'd calculate using excel and what your broker's platform spits out- it's based on current price that we can all see and is going back to whatever time you want. Implied is forward looking and that is what the VIX was...

Troll certified! Next stop- entering into trades that people reccomend- particularly those people who asked the OP to hold on to it till expiration because a $20 or so move isnt likely on AAPL- $20 being a mere 4.4% when the darling company of the planet was at $450. Love this site!

I was on campus and checked bloomberg for option skew analysis. I like how it allows you to compare past vs present skew shapes. But bloomberg is so massive in terms of its usage i found it rather difficult to analyze multiple securities at once from some kind of watchlist- I admit I'm new to...

Very interesting! I guess one shouldnt discount everything away so quickly. Groovy! Yeah Bloomberg seems pretty bada$$

Couldn't agree more! But there are academic studies delving into some of it's merits. For example Support and Resistance could be seen as a momentary regime change with prices exhibiting high mean reversion. Andrew Lo- the MIT professor has a rather lengthy paper on Technical Analysis. But...