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because IMHO 1) Gap is filled 2) Most stopp- losses from shorties are hit @ about $ 90 Anyone else short? Or even long?

Sold Allianz today with a nice gain of 34% within a couple of days.That was easy money. :p

Anyway, thanks oddi. :p

changed my offer to 0.45 for a second, this time I could see it in the order book. But now my order is 0.50 again and I see 0.55 as best offer. Is there somebody playing with my balls?

Also try to sell a put on Affx. Think my quotes with IB are not OK. I see the best offer in May 15 Put as 0.55 (at the moment), but I have a sell order for 0.50, so I should see my offer? Can you please take a look and tell me what offer do you see?

Covered @18.74, small loss, but learned something out of it, which is more important. :cool:

No, they still have big trouble with Dresdner Bank and I guess a lot of bad debt. But they are trimming down their exposure in Münich Rück and in the finance sector in general. Look, I think management has done everything wrong in the last years, without exception. But I think Allianz will...

I don't know what's up today, but this Allianz just goes through the roof, up more than 10% today, already made more than 20% within days on the remaining position and dividend yield is still to come. Oh boy, sometimes it is better to be lucky than clever.

Sorry, but so far I don't give systems away. Although I think the 2600% are not realistic, I will just trade the system with only one contract and check it out. The system works well in 3 different markets with 2600%, 1100% and 860% over a 5 year period, respectively. Got the ideas for this...

Is this realistic? Programmed a commodity system in TS2000i without any optimizing. Percent profitable: 56% Number of trades: 410 over 5 years Ratio average win/average loss: 2,10. Return on account: over 2600% This seems to good to be true. What might I have done wrong? :confused:

If you take a look at mcd in November '02, you will see a gap down and prices falling further, although no LOD after gap down. This was one of my short plays, locked in profits on second day after gap down. But now I see the point of yours and the other longs. Yes, standard deviation could...

Yes dgabriel, LOD would be more promising, right. But take a look at mcd, think you understand what I will point out.

Realmoney.com - isn't this that CRAMER stuff everybody is laughing about? $ 2200 subscription fee- is it worth the money? I mean, I'm only interested in some callings for potential profit warnings, don't wanna hear any opinion of that CRAMER.

Hi, I'm wondering if there is a really good information service out there, providing infos about possible profit warnings. Imagine you just buy a deep out- of-the money put for only a few bucks and it explodes like this Affx thing! Anyone having such a service? If so, anyone...

So dstod and oddiduro are my counterparts. Lets see what happens and who makes money. Yes, maybe I'm the fool, also could be that we both make money- timing is everything. Anyway, I'll post the trade, hopefully this won't be a fiasco for me. Good luck to all. :p

Just shorted AFFX. Target $16.

Why short good old Fannie? Has a very low p/e and pays dividend? Only due to TA? Even TA gives not that a good reason for shorting Fannie IMHO. So why?

Why I covered part of my short position? Because gaps tend to be filled, Alfonso.

already sold half of my position with a nice gain of more than 10% within two days. I will place a stopp -loss at 10% from the initial buy price, so this will be a free rider. Plan: Sit and wait for the dividend yield of about 5.7%.

by hedge funds. Think they are that bombed out, that there could be some bargains for longer term investors. Sure, they all have their problems, but probably some will survive. My favorite: AZ, Allianz, biggest German insurer, pays dividend( at least so far), $ 11 Cash, $ 9 book value...