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Oanda is best for spreads and is very reputable. Coach> Stay away from FXCM. There are better brokers out there.

Yes I am familiar with it. But the problem is wearing that many hats... I only have one head at the moment! I could try to consider a strategy of that nature if this was my full time occupation which sadly its not. It seems like a nice style though (I like analysis, top down is best as bottom up...

Yep momentum was the driving factor for that one. BTW for macro direction of the market I have been looking at potential fundamental models. For example here is one based on comparisons of stock yields and value: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/status/ I am also looking at something called the...

Corrected the May results and posted up the June list. In case anyone notices any errors please post them up! www.aeroscapital.com

Hey George_S. 1. There is no survivorship bias in the data. Many of the picks during the dot com bubble days, for example, doesn't exist anymore. This is one of the first thing I looked out for as I have been a victim of false backtests due to survivorship bias in the past. 2. My mistake...

All positions liquidated. For the month of May: Model: -6.98% S&P 500: -2.32% Since start of journal: Model: +5.39% S&P 500: -0.90% I will post comments and the June list later today/early tomorrow.

A rather applicable response I would make is: Your calls don't make **** in whatever fantasy index you trade. Stop is at 2pts when wrong, there isn't any stops when he is right.

Naturally you wouldn't be able to elimate all of your risk. Your best bet would be +vegal positions (if you don't want to close all position EOD).

Whats the rational for shorting EU/Asia indices? Typically everything moves in lockstep. Actually, another interesting position would be to go long/hold CHF (Swiss Francs) denominated positions. Historically Switzerland is a neutral nation thus during times of crises you see strong CHF...

Carry long OTM puts/calls (+vega) may be one possibility.

Remember that FX is a symmetrical, two sided, paired market. Unlike stocks, FX has two essentially complimentary values (EURUSD/USDEUR). Thus, while stocks tend to go down in a much more volatile manner, this quality does not exist in FX (you have equal volatility on both move ups and downs).

Fully agree with this sentiment. I actually expect the S&P to advance ~10% by December 2006. Earnings yeild adjusted for risk-free+inflation rates is still attractive. Value is also attractive (PE of the index is not in any dangerous territory nor is earnings in general slumping considerably).

That wouldn't be shabby. A nice HF or some financial backer would be nice too :).

Yea I have to start working on it over the summer. Need to figure out what I will do this summer actually (the internship I am in now is a once a week grunt work deal basically). Goal is to find something good to do that can get my brain working. From the guys that have placed in the past...

I should start spending some time on it. Just that I am a lazy bum when it comes to projects with far off deadlines like this.

And I was thinking I started early. 18 in 4 months haha. What was your westinghouse entry on? Currently completing my Intel STS entry to be submitted this fall [finance (behavioral sciences): news and affect on FX vols on uncorrelated baskets]

Heh seriously. Just tell one of riskarb's synopsis of an exotic trade to some ladies and they will be all over you. Although I am willing to make a market that the ladies are probably going to be after the wallet ;). Nice trading B.

I have a question B: How much of trading exotics profitably is related to superior modelling/pricing than say from a "game theory" point of view (edge from dealer, potential "gunning" of barriers etc)? Naturally having both skills is optimal but which is more crucial to you?

I am definately glad that we are getting some responses flying. Stephen> Is there any good literature in this subject that may be recommended? That would be interesting to review.

Yep I can attest to that. I play some of the hit/miss binary options in FX provided by Oanda. Basically you can use the options to make directional bets on the underlying only, no chance of actually eeking out good profits from trading the options themselves.