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My work has covered everything from breakout trading, Elliott wave, Intermarket analysis, short term swing trading and Wyckoff. You can see I have covered almost everything so my work has something for everyone. In terms of trend following, breakout trading you are correct you only win...

I think people don't take the time to understand the markets, they just throw rules and data and if it works , then trade it and if it does not work then don't. If we get a deeper understanding then we understand why during some period it did not work and in others it worked well. We should not...

Well, the back adjust data can not be used to calculate percentages. We really don't use the back adjust data to produce the equity stream. TradersStudio uses the backadjusted and the real price to create a equity stream and trade by trade which similate trading in real life, except if the...

I would like to start a new thread about developing and testing systems for trading stocks. The world of developing mechanical systems for trading stocks is different than it is for commodities. One reason is that stock require real money, futures how much money you have available is never...

Well, If you watch part 2 of my video , you will see the concept is deeper than you think. ORB profits from big range days , how do you predict big range days ?. Another issue is has the noise level risen. How do we define this noise. The problem is that system development is not just...

Yes , it was solved if you are using intra-day data. But if you want to test a concept using EOD data, then for tomorrow's orders you do have this problem. I did not say we were talking about something TradeStation's does not do here. We should start talking about opening range breakout...

The point is that ORB is a good valid method. It might not be working well currently , but that might not be true in a few months. Valid systems go into bad periods but do come back. My point is that if we really understand the system then we can adapt it to changing market conditions. I...

Let me explain to you what opening range breakout is It is simply bracketing around the open +/ some level. If the price breaks above the upper bracket you go long. If the price breaks below the lower bracket you go short. When this method is backtested using a backtesting platform like...

Yes I trade .

Recent performance for ORB has not been very good, but this is because of current market conditions. The point is that this is a classic methodolgy. Classic trend following had issues over the past two year. Our hope in this thread is to discuss the how and why's and maybe come up with some new...

Some of you might know me as contributing editor for Futures magazine for the past 10 years. I am also Vice President of TradersStudio.com, a trading system development platform that allows easy portfolio testing and integrated money management. I have written on a lot of topics over the...

You can look for the article series I did not Excel in 1999, in Futures Magazine. It's a very good primer with a Trading slant. We wrote a system backtester in Excel during this series.

Yes I am the Murray Ruggiero who has been contributing editor for Futures Magazine for over a decade. I also co-developed I-Master with Keith Fitschen. The system did well for two years after release because volatility was high. The system has had flat performance over the past year or so. This...

I AM SURE A BEAR MARKET NEVER ACTS LIKE A BULL ONE

The point about the one bear and bull market is to see how the system performs under different market condition. This is important because what happens if the system that you just developed and only tested since Jan 2000 on the nasdaq , would have lost more money than it made from 1996 -2000. If...

The issue about how long of a period to use for a backtest is not simple. 1) Is the system based on a sound premise, for example a seasonal corn system which shorts in July , does not need as many trades as a price pattern based system because the premise is sound and based on the end of...