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4. How come the 2 guys using real money in the Yahoo group made good profits in 2015 when volatility was twice as big as in 2014? (VIX maxed at 31 in 2014 and at 53 in 2015) As quoted in post #59, one of them made 18% last year. Is there a link to these discussions? Thanks

Take a look here: http://docs.hamzeianalytics.com/JB_121030.pdf Can anyone backtest a touch of 1SD and then a touch of 1/2SD on the other side? Would be much fewer trades but seems like it would have ridiculous %

I think Tom has mentioned several times that they use EOD data for larger studies. I cannot provide where and when he said it but that's what I recall.

No coding error, don't know how-LOL! I observed (osmosis) ES for many hours until it kind of hit me.

I have not backtested it from different periods, I do not have the data and as indicated I backtested it manually. A hired backtest would interest me as well, how does one determine if a 3rd party did it correctly though? I did live through those periods and was on the wrong side more often...

Thank you all. The setup goes long or short or no entry based on my long observations of how ES behaves. 1.75 target /3.25 stop 2 losers in a row max. 20+ winners in a row. I plan to ramp up contracts trade based on the setup's returns. When it gains enough profit to add another contract I...

In response to the questions asked. Never 3 losers in a row. Price action.

After years of studying ES, I have a trading strategy that I backtested (manually) for 200 days and then forward tested for about 75 days now. Not every day signals a trade, the total is about 170 back test and 51 forward tested. Both segments perform at 90-92% win rate with a positive...

Anyone with thoughts of AAP as a takeover play?

I use the 10 asset class relative strength rotation style of Meb Faber. Take the top 4 strongest ETFs, monthly along with 20% in 10 yr. bonds. Performance 1973-2010. CAGR just under 18% with max drawdown of 17% and Sharpe ratio > 1. Any more futzing for me is wasted time and likely to be...

No winners, never is in a VIXtrader thread. It ends the same, with another person putting him on ignore. Oh well.

There's the ad hominen I've been expecting. That's what happens when one strongly defends a position that they admit to "I haven't seen them make any claims for expected annual returns, but then I don't watch the show religiously or anything. I've seen several, and never got the impression they...

The world is full of people who think defending something or someone that they fully do not know makes them look smarter. You don't have the facts so quit acting like you do.

You are wasting your talents, you should become a White House apologist err, I mean spokesman. You apparently can spin everything. The tt boys make mistakes of this magnitude quite often, dare I say weekly.

This should help you get up to speed. https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/what-else-ya-got/episodes/expected-portfolio-return-analysis-12-09-2014?locale=en-US

Have you ever seen them claim 7-10% as the expected returns? hey have bandied about the 1% per day figure quite often actually.

That contest would be over quickly, with neither getting much traction. I see the Mission Impossible fuse as the graphics for that segment.

Unfortunately, most are following the tt mantra making it tough to critique. The only one that they've critiqued extensively is Karen. Yet she is surely their greatest success story. Additionally, tt boast of 50-60,000 viewers and only has a dozen or so Rising Stars. Hmmm. Maybe TJ can get...

The whole Rising Star concept is BS. They take a snapshot in time where some guy is doing well. Big deal, a six month decent run. I wonder why they never revisit the previous Rising Stars and see how they've done since their episode aired. No I don't, I have a pretty good idea why they don't do...

MCD has not cut a dividend in like 36 years. The "cut" you refer to is from 1.50 annual dividend to .38 per Q for 3 Qs then it became .50 per Q and onward. Please be more careful with your wild claims.