Ach, laddies.
+/- 10% with 2 weeks to expiry? What's missing is the range in between. The max. loss could be a constant from -1 pt. or - 1% or whatever. Whereas the profit is much lower over a range.
I'm sure that there are many structures that could accomplish this. I looked at SPY (SPY =...
Yeah, I thought that you wouldn't like that idea. Heck, I don't even like it. Not for a one lot. With bigger size, maybe sell off some call premium to reduce risk and trade at an advantage. Obviously, if BABA wasn't up today, I wouldn't even mention it.
A good purchase, so far. FWIW, the 108C could be sold for around 1.40 as I type. Credit + 100 max. value. Zero risk from entry.
I know, I know, you're shooting for another jackpot like the GOOG trade last year.
Yeah, I trade flys on CL often.
Personally, when you posted, I thought oil would be higher by now. A cursory glance (Friday morning) says the spread was about 1.30ish(mid) @ CL 80. So would you take the profit then? Since it was no longer effective as a directional downside hedge.
Now at...
Really depends on time frame. I don't use BBs. Based on your charts - downtrend looks intact. Using price only (and I'm no expert with this), daily could be a mini-breakout to the upside. But as you see from your chart, this view would be taking some heat if you bought above 64.
On a shorter...
So, of the orig. Oct17 put spread got the 1850/1840 bull put spread left. Keep an eye on 1850 and buy back for 1.00 or so. No harm no foul. Otherwise let it expire.
Just covered UL @1876.25