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when you're managing a moonshot portfolio, think about minimizing your drawdowns by reducing portfolio covariance. e.g. BTC might be a good long term hold and it would be foolish to "sell the dips" if you think it is on a secular rise. However, how does one stomach the interim volatility? By...

Empathize, engage, and encourage. You have power over the way people perceive you. :thumbsup:

Private REITs are less correlated than public REITs. However, correlations tend to spike during panics. This is because, fundamentally, assets based upon economic activity are all going to be impacted by the risk-free rate, inflation expectations, and the risk premia of the asset class (which...

For those of you that pay or have paid for education before: 1- what is a "reasonable" price to pay for running mentorship? 2- are you willing to pay for skill development? or do you just want signals? 3- what is the hallmark of a good program? Thanks.

F*ck your feelings, right?

If you’re going to spend money on education take courses in macroeconomics, capital markets, and corporate finance. Price is a lagging indicator and so what is more useful is to know why decision makers enter/exit positions in the first place, which will help you evaluate if a short term...

They are more useful if you change the time series to being percentage change instead of raw prices. That’s because prices behave like non-stationary geometric walks, whereas price change is more tractable (easier to analyze).

I work in the industry and went through bank training before trying to launch my own fund. Your process should start by you thinking about actions and their causality. For example, if you are trading volatility — what causes it? What ends it? What are KPIs you can use to measure and track it...

Need a bit more of a process imo. Need to have a view on volatility or direction of the underlying. Scalping theta is collecting nickels in front of a steamroller.

afaik, you first need to have a rough model of shocks that would create vix spikes, the size of the spike and duration, and then you can use that to "price" a shock in real time against the vix using your model. The usefulness in a model is greater accuracy (or estimate of error) in your...

Yes, volatility tells you how stable the trend is. Markets act as discount mechanisms, so forward volatility is more useful than historical (e.g. VIX). Analyzing volatility, you'll notice clusters (periods of high volatility, periods of low volatility), hence regime instead of mean reversion...

yes, it's ok, but you need to be buying 5-10k+ shares for it to be meaningful IMO

looks like you're doing momentum. patterns & waves are backwards looking -- you cannot drive staring at the rearview mirror.

Don’t trade on price, trade on view. Do not make price your trigger. This is a behavioral issue that you need to systematically manage.

Thinking about doing a zoom call for those interested.

1) yeah every piker can profit off of momentum 2) you can buy ETFs that are based on the momentum factor 3) g-score > canslim, but any “screenable” strategy (a la systematic growth/value) is likely to underperform in the future due to market efficiency (nothing is cheap & growth is priced in)...

Honestly not very sure what edge there is for a retail trader in using level 2s or t&s. For traders at funds/banks, you’re constantly evaluating liquidity and market impact of a trade you make, so to estimate the price you’ll get on a trade, level 2s can be helpful. For retail, you won’t be...

Funny reading some of the comments here. The best traders and fund managers have the best infrastructure (teams, research, etc.). The ability for single managers to succeed drops as a market becomes more efficient. Star traders/managers develop their edge by making marginal improvements to their...

Start with macro — is the backdrop good or bad for equities, then sector/industries (which ones are poised to do well given the macro regime?), then companies within the industry (which ones have the ability to outperform by gaining market share or disrupting competitors?). Ultimately, that...

What makes you say you’re a value investor? Was your decision based upon relative earnings yield or just a price chart?