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std of price doesn't make sense -- i would use std dev of log returns.

Makes sense to be long dollar given higher rates.

My point is that central banks are a fairly new phenomenon and we have lots of recorded history illustrating financial crises pre-1913. Life was not better without central banks lol.

Sun, what do you call human history pre-1913 lol?

UST is already rising well ahead of peers...And with the Euro zone's botched vaccine rollout, I don't see them competing with US on the growth front (and by proxy, rates) for some time unless they make a policy mistake (which is what Lagarde did from Dec-Feb).

Well you're trading, that's why. The op was asking about sizing for long-term...

Well, you minimize drawdowns by reducing the covariance in your portfolio. That allows you to eek out more return per every unit of portfolio risk.

If you want to market a strategy you need to understand that this is a business with an active market. Put together a pitch deck outlining your strategy, why it's different, who it is for, what your terms of an arrangement look like, and what your operational system looks like (broker, bank...

I think you're in for a big surprise if you bet against the dollar at the moment.

This is very unlikely to happen for a few reasons: The natural rate of interest should approximate the GDP potential growth rate (underlying theory of rates is the time value of money and opportunity cost) -- unless you think GDP growth will run very hot for 5-10 years, rates rising to 5.3%+ is...

No. Follow asset allocation rules when making long term investments. There are four primary asset classes: Equities Fixed income Currencies Commodities There’s also volatility and derivatives on those assets. For a long term portfolio your goal is to maximize returns while minimizing...

Such high conviction for so murky a thesis... What stops you from advocating for raising fines/punishments for poachers and supporting charities that protect wildlife?

The standard deviation in log changes (daily or atr) is the most tractable...

As someone who's sat in a bank trading floor, hearing a rando retail trader on his laptop claiming to be an arbitrageur is just... :banghead::banghead::banghead:

10Yr has jumped again:

Here is my Fundseeder link: TA7017937 Note: as of 3/11/21 still not live (waiting for IBKR)

Yes but mainly for logistics reasons. Most of my money is with 2 institutions.

100% gross means no leverage.

3/11/2021 - Thoughts on the Macro Regime, Inflation, and Where We Go From Here Key facts: The outlook for US gdp is improving -- consensus forecast for US gdp in 2021 has moved up from 3.9% to 5.5% (source: Bloomberg), this should support stocks (especially cyclical sectors) as EPS forecasts...

Hello Traders: Thanks for being here. I'm longandshort, a "portfolio manager" in seed/incubator phase. The goal of this journal is to provide education, get feedback from other traders, and to hold myself accountable. Note: due to confidentiality and IP of my strategy, I will only be discussing...