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Asset prices do exhibit a degree of autocorrelation. This is because of the slow diffusion of information, the reliance of investors on heuristics, and investment strategies built off those heuristics.

I have my licenses but only because I was a sell side trader. When you represent a broker dealer, you need to be licensed in order to get paid (commissions, advisory fees, etc.). It has no benefit from a buy side, or investor, perspective. If you are looking for education, I’d consider the CFA...

This is a well known behavioral issue. Improve your system to incorporate systematic triggers to help you reduce that risk.

I agree with your angle. But that’s the difference between “omg fraud they don’t have dollars!” And “this portfolio looks risky”. If fraud —> class action law suit —> founders thrown in jail If risky portfolio —> confidence issue —> board response —> ??

Yeah you don’t seem familiar with how treasury management works. No one carries cash. Think about your entire net worth. How much is in physical paper? How much is in your bank account. How much in CDs? While their portfolio may skew on the risky side, which we don’t know unless they tell us...

Actually this looks fine. Less than 2% of the portfolio is in other investments. The cash like assets they have are good collateral for cash and have maturities within a year. If everyone converts tether into usd, they won’t have trouble converting those assets into cash.

Semi strong form market efficiency *shrug* I’m still seeing a good amount of interesting trades.

Crypto is not a contender to fiat, it is a contender to physical tender. Crypto is a marketing slogan for digital assets. :rolleyes:

Value destruction is when assets are marked down. E.g. you buy a stock for $100 (someone else got $100), but then you sell the stock for $40 (someone paid $40). That's a balance sheet loss. In real life, many companies lost (went bankrupt), and the value of someone of those assets (which were...

This is a basic momentum/trend following strategy that lots of people use.

Crypto doesn't pose a threat to governments and financial systems. It does pose a threat from the standpoint of it being an asset bubble (people may lose a ton of money and create a run on crypto-"bank" institutions, causing further distress and requiring government intervention). You can earn...

You're not going to learn trading from youtube videos. Useful youtube videos: watch clips of pros on Bloomberg/CNBC or interviews with legends. What I like to do is search "equity outlook *insert big investment bank and time period*" to get an idea of what the equity strategists at bulge...

Not really. Still lots of carry opportunities out there.

I had bear steepeners on but closed them out last month. Do I think bonds could go lower? Yes, but the catalyst isn't very clear right now-- this might change if an infrastructure package passes. But right now, treasury refunding has peaked, so any shock in the interim (between now and voting on...

There are theories of money and then there is monetary theory & policy. Theories of money are ideas about the medium exchange people use. Monetary theory & policy is how central banks and treasury departments function.

@piezoe I generally find your posts interesting, but I gotta go with @DiceAreCast and say it's "monetary" theory. :P Another point, just having read your posts, I think you both are speaking truth but from different perspectives. You're taking a more prescriptive approach, while Dice is...

I recommend learning about the carry strategy and to start covering central bank events. You may have 2-4 trades per month, which is far more manageable. Once you get the direction (interest rate differentials and policy path), you can then evaluate the trend (exchange rates tend to be...

The Feds QE program does not create inflation. Inflation is driven by demand or supply shocks.

@kmiklas the Feds program is not what’s driving inflation. We’ll probably hear them talk about tapering later this year (August - November).

In my opinion, Japan is negative, US is positive, Eurozone is close to zero. Labor force + productivity aren’t expanding very quickly, and governments aren’t willing to really spend to expand labor demand/productivity. Biden’s proposals are a step in the right direction.