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  1. M

    Reverse to exit strategies

    In my testing, always-in-the-market trading systems (also called "two state" systems because they can either be (1) Long or (2) Short) usually produce smaller gain-to-pain ratios than sometimes-in-the-market trading systems (also called "three state" systems because they can either be (1) Long...
  2. M

    How do we know we finally hit the bottom?

    Maybe it would be simpler to go long after the bottom rather than at the bottom. You could use one of those lagging indicators that Elite Traders love so much.
  3. M

    Nikkei futures?

    Is this the sort of thing you are looking for? http://tinyurl.com/4e76t9 There are four different fullsize Nikkei futures contracts on three different exchanges in three different countries, plus an eMini Nikkei contract. I assumed (guessed) you were talking about the one with the largest...
  4. M

    A guy hands you a card and he is a hedge fund manager...what do you do?

    You reply, "What a coincidence, that's what I do, too. My firm's still downtown but we're looking at a couple buildings in Greenwich. Here's my card. Let's get a drink."
  5. M

    Pope criticises pursuit of wealth

    Which is worse: pursuit of wealth, or contraceptives?
  6. M

    Iran captures US Warplane?

    I have a feeling that the aircraft-type will turn out to be "passenger transport," and that it will turn out not to be configured to carry air-to-air or air-to-ground weapons (machine guns, cannon, rockets, bombs, missiles). In other words, that it will turn out not to be a "Warplane" at all...
  7. M

    Anyone buying anything?

    I bought Dec 2008 BAX on this morning's open (Oct 6). Playing for the "mo" to continue.
  8. M

    A forum to save images in

    bax
  9. M

    Shorting EBAY -- big winner

    Maybe those who are bearish on EBAY would prefer to purchase put options rather than short the stock. If rules are changed making it difficult or impossible to remain short, forcing you and all other shorts to buy, all at the same time (squeeze!), you'll probably wish you had bought puts...
  10. M

    Is anyone disabling there system during this market?

    When faced with an agonizing decision under uncertainty, perhaps a good strategem is: "do half". Then you lock-in half of the best case outcome (and guarantee you only suffer half of the worst case outcome). You are proposing to add a new parameter alpha, into your trading system's position...
  11. M

    euro getting tagged again! dollar rising

    But this cannot be. The Euro is headed up! To 1.700 against the USD. I read it here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=108059 and here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2082305
  12. M

    What exactly is "give-up functionality" for futures ?

    Money Manager Michelle has 30 clients. Each client has their own account at their own broker. Michelle has POA trading authority in each client's account. (This offers the clients some measure of security against fraud: Michelle can place trades but can't wire money in/out of the accounts)...
  13. M

    UBS to Exit Commodities, Excluding Precious Metals

    I think this is a mistake; in my experience, industrial metals have been much more profitable trading vehicles than precious metals in the past four or five years. But perhaps UBS AG seeks to operate as a market maker rather than as a directional trader.
  14. M

    Expected Return Question

    Dig out your Introduction To Calculus book and reacquaint yourself with L^Hopital's Rule and other "limit as x approaches infinity" products and quotients.
  15. M

    Cumulative Loss Formula

    Isn't it 100x more satisfying when you work out an answer to a problem, all by yourself, instead of looking it up in a musty old book, or blindly trusting the confident pronouncements of total strangers? (including, of course, total strangers who write books or create web pages or post messages...
  16. M

    Cumulative Loss Formula

    Yes, there is such a formula. To derive it yourself, observe that "a 1% loss" leaves you with 99% of (your original bankroll). Observe that "two 1% losses in a row" leave you with 99% of (99% of (your original bankroll)). Proceed by induction. By the way, sixty nine (not 70) 1% losses in a...
  17. M

    Be honest: Who here has noticed lack of credit, hardship borrowing, etc?

    Two auto dealers here closed last month. The dealerships weren't sold, nobody took over the operations, they just closed. The car lots and buildings are abandoned, empty. The local newspaper interviewed the owners, who said a big part of the problem was that customers couldn't qualify for...
  18. M

    Volatility Filter

    Some people, including me, use betsizing algorithms that cause position size @ entry to vary inversely* with "volatility". Higher "volatility" means smaller position @ entry; lower "volatility" means larger position @ entry. "Volatility" could be some kind of average true range, or it could...
  19. M

    Remember that story where a guy made a random entry system that was profitable?

    Read the followups. In combination with random entries, Chandelier with a (3 x ATR) trailing stop was nicely profitable in the distant past, lost money recently. Then londonpopart found that changing the Chandelier to a (10 x ATR) (wow!) stop made money both past and present. Much of the...
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