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Mark, Those 300 traders, would you say that they were taking profits too quickly because they just couldn't wait long enough due to mental weakness, or was it because their method did not have the edge to provide the 3R winners that you refer to above? My bet is that the vast majority of...

Some good points above indeed. To those I'd like to add a comment that I've rarely seen addressed in the popular psychology books by Douglas et al; namely that a trader's ability to think in probabilities assumes that the trader has an edge which can be played out over the course of his sample...

Probably one of the best posts I've seen here in a while. Another way to achieve the same goal that Frank talks about, if daytrading, is to start with a full position first and then peel off contracts if not proven right, instead of waiting for the mkt to prove one wrong (hit your hard stop)...

He is likely a type A personality then, hates to lose, has very high expectations for himself. That's all good, because it means that he probably has what it takes to trade profitably, but it's also a potential negative if he can't tone down his expectations a little, and focus on the process...

Does anyone know if HanSeng1 is still around? Thx

Some pretty good advice above, relative to the useless vitriol seen in this thread. Peil, I took quick look at your journal and had one or two observations. It seems that if you analyze your distribution of winners and losers, you have far more extreme losers than extreme winners. At the...

Thx much, I'll just transcribe each decision by pulling out the number from each statement then... Do you have any view on the extent of overshoot typically displayed by the Fed? I mean could it be that it is simply disingenuous to believe that one can forecast rate hikes/cuts based on the...

Would anyone know where I can find a history (10-20 yrs) of Fed rate hikes/cuts? I'd like to study the different hiking/cutting cycles in conjunction with the different economic conditions of each cycle. Has anyone ever looked into this? Thx

Man, it shows the hunger on this site.... Bring on the manna and holy quail!

Reread this post Sparohok, its dated from 10/27, GOOG was at $353 then, $418 today. Thats why people trade, because they have a divergent view on what market is pricing in. The market was 'right' on 10/27 in repricing GOOG upwards to fair value, and this process continues still, although we...

Eq! That rocks! I bet taken from G3 live, where EJ really stood apart shining like a gem in the rough. Wow, listen to those licks man, just breath taking...

Lol. Yeah, folks on this board can tell you all about why they are so convinced about this or that on GOOG, but in all likelihood didnt make a dime on this last move, in fact, some were probably short the stock. Just classic. Some, including Hussman, would do themselves a lot of good by...

Maybe you can correct me if I'm wrong, but isnt it true that in terms of queries, YHOO isnt that far behind from GOOG? So the latter's advantage has to do with monetizing those queries? By monetize I mean, ultimately whatever sites GOOG brings up tends to lead to more clickthroughs by surfers...

Thanks for the laugh, your use of ridicule tells me that you lost your cool and are likely pretty insecure, after all, this is ET. Although, wow, inversion covariance bias, you gotta have some creativity to come up with that one, LOL, silicon valley you said? I was asking Hussman to tell me...

Martin As you said, his 'estimate' of what GOOG is worth is predicated on his analysis. If you want to split hairs, be my guest. However, his confidence in his 'estimate', is predicated on his past success with calling tech bubble. Which is a clear example of allowing representative bias to...

Hussman is displaying a classic judgemental bias called representative bias when he says "Having made similar comments regarding the value of Cisco, Sun, EMC and Oracle near the peak of the tech bubble, with value estimates (which turned out to be slightly optimistic) at small fractions of their...

I can't believe the recklessness of the WSJ article... and I was glad to see VN react in a calm and measured way. If it was me, I'd probably sue them, reputation notwithstanding, in a heartbeat. While I do not endorse traders selling books who have blown up multiple times, comebacks or not, and...

I think Santana is great for many who don't go beyond pop culture in their music collection. I like the guy, he's got his own recognizable tone, but for chills the same ole blues lick doesn't do the trick for me anymore. Especially when you hear it in every single solo, lol. I'd rather listen...

Thanks for the laugh

I guess detractors will have to shut up for once, but even that may be too hard of a thing to do for them, let alone acknowledging that JH's brand of trend following seems to always put up returns even after large drawdowns (within his tolerance parameters) I've been watching Goodboy over at...