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This is what happens when the POTUS goes head to head with Xi Jinping. He just got done saying that there wasn't going to be an easy deal for China! Then the news hit. Time to SELL! There was a massive leg down in 10 year yields.

Globex had seen bullish spec interest all day up to the news. This means that when the news hit and took levels they had to pay up HARD to cut their exposure. This is obvious if you are watching the inter exchange arbitrage. Prior to the news the risk was skewed very much to the downside...

Doesn't look random to me. But then again I'm a quantitative genius.

My opinion is that you are mathematically illiterate OP. This is probably why you can't maintain objectivity with regard to Nassim Taleb's book. Taleb has become some kind of mystic for non quantitative people. Taleb worshippers love saying 'fat tails' but have no clue of the complexity...

Basically, I am still trying to master this but, you have to see how the index reacts to these. (1) Cash and Carry Arbitrage (2) Reverse Cash and Carry If the index is firm in the presence of C&C arb then there is plenty of supply on the sell side of the stock market. If the index is firm in...

Wow, that's like pseudo math speak. Why would you even use math jargon like that except to confuse people. What are you some kind of joke? This is complete bull$hit.

I kind of envy the systems guys. I decided long ago to just trade completely discretionary. It was probably longer than I can even remember now. I don't really like the idea of a computer deciding trades for me, even if it had a really robust set of condition criteria and risk management...

Here's how I like to think about groups: 1) Dumb Money 2) Large Spec 3) Institutions, Prime Brokerage, (IRA) 4) Fund Managers In my opinion, the new dumb money is automated trend following algorithms. This could be hedge funds or independently managed capital, whatever. This group just...

In some ways yes, but there is information that is not really shown in DOM, footprint, TnS, and stuff. I mean the arbitrage activity. The interexchange cross product arbitrage is not really shown with those things.

Hi. I am focused almost completely on the instruments NQ, ES, YM, RTY. You mentioned spreads and the relevance of the spreads vs depth of market and market profile. This means that the following does not apply to treasury, eurodollar, or other commodity futures. The equity indexes are spread...

Hi. I have been watching the index spreads for months. Here's a couple things: IWM is the hedge leg for the Dow. This is because the Dow needs a hedge that has broad sector make up. This trade is a favorite among prop firms for equity spread trading. This is the original 'cap spread.' Huge...

There are some. Roubini is ok. I like the Australian Steve Keen. Another is Robert Shiller and Micheal Hudson. Economics is inherently political. This fact is inescapable. The discussion is tiptoeing around politically sensitive issues, the creation of money being one of them. The real...

Plenty of people have high IQ but no real intuition. In mathematics, one has to know every technique, not because you have to use every single one of them on an exam, but because you have to use the best techniques to make yourself faster and smarter and more effective. It's like a game or a...

This is what I'm starting to think as well. Posturing and claims of intellectual prowess must be backed up with considered opinion. The burden of proof is on he who makes the claim. You have to be able to talk trading before you can get away with broad aspersions, ET or otherwise.

Here's a suggestion. Just start some threads with actual advanced topics. Most of the members will be clueless but some elite few may very well possess the requisite intellectual ability to engage in a productive discussion. You may be pleasantly surprised. Or you may choose to discount...

Cross hedging is just using related futures to trade long and short at the same time. You can buy one NQ and sell two ES. Then wait for market to move up or down. When it does close the profitable contracts and let the other contract roll down so that you made money on both directions. Easy...

Absolutely. But, this is because of the level of competition. There is a technological arms race going on in financial markets. People need to understand that the traders going at the full clip size (250 ES contracts) have the best everything. But this doesn't mean that a small trader can't...

Day traders can make tons of money. But, the vast majority can't hang with the pros. What's funny about it is that the guys who don't know how to day trade love to hate successful day traders. Sour grapes. I have never heard nor read about any successful day trader hating on swing traders...

I love how hard it is. Maybe that's my favorite thing about it. Some people need to be challenged in life. Actually, I recently found the secret that I must have been looking for longer than I can even remember. I am just kind of stunned now. Almost like I can't really believe its true. I...

This is a hilarious thread. Here is some actual intelligent comment: The Brazilian Real collapsed over 50% from 2011-2016. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this is going to make daytrading brazilian equity futures challenging to say the least. Some relevant headlines: Brazil...