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I think I specialized too much. Studied micro structure, auction theory, market making, derivatives, pro trader techniques, and every kind of basic trading theory/techniques there ever was. I obsessed over quant finance, advanced hedging, statistics, programming, history of markets and even...

The 'average person' is a just a useful idiot that provides assets to the banks and financial institutions. Useful idiots that have no assets will provide forward income in exchange for credit, or they will obtain gov cash to hand over to other idiots that got credit and now land lord over...

When you say "Futures Market" that could mean just about anything. If you mean US equities, then the indicator is 'common' for a group, not all traders. Fund managers watch RSI, 50 and 200 period SMA. Also, they watch the bond market, investor sentiment, news, and have armies of analysts...

Thanks guys. I just needed to find a viable cross-hedge for a Rate/Index spread. ZN will do the job, so now I just have to practice execution and get consistent with the results.

I will give you an example of a robot trade. The mega prop firms will do the following. They take two spreads and spread them against each other to mitigate systemic risk in both equities and the rates complex. In other words they volatility adjust two inter-market spreads and spread that...

Progress Report: ZN is approximately volatility and exposure equivalent to Ultra Bond futures in a 3:1 ratio. What's more, ZN requires only 27% of the initial margin and is highly liquid. However, it is more commission intensive on a dollar volatility adjusted basis. Thanks @Stamamarti !

Yea, that's what I'm doing right now: comparing the different spreads to the outright Ultra-T Bonds to check out how the different constructions are altering the volatility of the positions. Seems like you can do just about anything you want with these instruments like invert the...

Looking to start a discussion, or maybe just get some tips from the experienced guys. Let's say I want to take a directional view on the back half of the curve. I am pretty sure that I can just buy the UB/ZB spread in a 1:1 ratio and that will give me a bullish exposure. This would also...

Hey, capital concerns aside, just a couple things then. Make sure you watch the index spreads YM/RTY, NQ/YM. You should also be watching the ultrabond / S&P spread. I would also be charting the FTSE, DAX, Eurostoxx50 and even NKD during the early hours of RTH. The rates market can drive or...

1 MES contract has $14,760.05 cash value. One round lot of SPY has a 1 cent spread (usually) and is $29,435. The ES has a 1 tick spread and each tick is $12.50 so if you are trading normal exposure for your account you should not have liquidity problems. The MES is not designed for tick...

Spread the front month not the calendar. The time spreads aren't even liquid.

Trade ES, NQ, YM, RTY, UB, ZB, and ZN. You can spread trade index and rate futures with $70,000 margin. The benefit of having more money means that you can use leverage to offset exposure, thus lowering overall risk. Buy a few UB and sell some ZB means leverage with lower risk. Trade...

Just use leveraged instruments, futures, options. If you have $25,000 then you are all set just apply retail brokerage. You said overnight so I assume you swing. Futures or synthetic long/short stock (no decay).

FILL at the ASK. (Ask means "asking price" so you fill the ask or get filled at the ask, close at or get closed at the ask). -edit

This is a political economy. You need to put US policy in perspective with the global economy. Economic growth is a global competition. Debt fuels growth in GDP. Purchasing power is irrelevant to policy makers (relatively speaking). There is no free market. Primary dealers have to...

Just read this thread or my other threads and posts. Trading Risk on / Risk off https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-risk-on-risk-off.336324/

Yes, it gives you confidence to short a rally or buy a dip because the trading leads the price moves. I'm measuring the trading through the differential of the CME, NASDAQ, and NYSE quotes and the CBOE real-time index values. Have been building systems focused on this for like 4 months...

Yea. It looks like bonds started rallying really hard at that time and the ES was still selling off. But then ES bottomed and started rallying too. Check it out. Whats driving the indicator is the PREMIUM on the NASDAQ and SPX tradable instruments. ES in white and Ultra Bond in red.

IB TWS / EXCEL API ThinkorSwim (Thinkscript) http://www.market-topology.com/

The futures premium. It's the only leading indicator there is, as far as I am aware. The premium is the true market. Price action can be just an illusion. It measures actual instantaneous demand. Professionals use it. It's the best kept secret in the market, for a reason. Trade secrets...