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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Ackman's JCP presentation from the other day ... http://www.scribd.com/doc/94429141/Bill-Ackman-s-Ira-Sohn-JCP-Presentation
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Don't own IBM and have never said a word about WMT's divvie with respect to the S&P at large. I'm not sure why it's even relevant. I lose track of things and am too lazy to look back and check, but are you (or is 'specter') the poster who's always talking about Hussman (and the fabled...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Michael Platt on JPM (where's martin?). BlueCrest was on the other side of the trades and he says bigger losses are coming if Europe continues to deteriorate. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-21/jpmorgan-counterparty-platt-says-bank-s-trading-loss-may-widen.html It's time to lay this...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    WMT at 10-year high just a couple of weeks after the idiotic Mexican bribery thing. It's the difference between a mainstream media, trumped-up fake scandal and a real one (JPMorgan); the difference between something that would have no effect on the earnings power of a company and something truly...
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Of course. it's always been about this. Political and bureaucratic power. Greece can walk away and the country will be just fine in 18 months. The danger for the EU is Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and even France seeing how nicely Greece rebounds while their countries remain in recession...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Gundlach trade of the decade: Buy Nat Gas/Short Apple Trade #2: Buy Apple/Short FB
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If you're such a smart guy (and apparently you had the exact price movement in JCPenney over the past few months mapped out before it happened), and you want to catch JPM for a bounce, feel free. But don't mix JPM in with WMT. As the last 2 weeks have made clear, banks are black boxes even to...
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    NFLX getting Tilsoned, about to go red on the year. :p
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8ef035de-a043-11e1-88e6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1v28NaH2c LTCM indeed. I'm lifting my odds of Dimon not surviving this from 50% to 60%.
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    LTCM ... Long Term Capital Morgan http://www.zerohedge.com/news/so-how-are-jpms-prop-counterparties-faring :p :D :p
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yeah, but they expire in June and time value was going to become an issue. One up day of 1% would be enough to destroy their value. While I was at it, I took a smidge of the profits and picked up a few SSO calls expiring next week. A solid up day tomorrow or Monday and these will double or...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Gonna cover my SPY puts into the close. The market is getting ridiculously oversold and these puppies have done their job well.
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Also keeping me up at night, but I'm not sure which ones he's talking about. NLY has traded in the same price range and roughly same yield forever. Julian Robertson's steepener trade (I'm putting them in all my family's stockings for Xmas) may be one of the bigger public boners ever.
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It's a silly survey. What would you have them say? You left out the most important part which is the rush into dividend stocks. Definitely keeps me up at night and sure to end badly.
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    There is no research other than the fact that Ackman and Tilson (Ackman's little poodle, $300M AUM lol) like it. Toss in a heavy dose of arrogance (just like w/JPM, no research or decent knowledge of the company, just that the crowd has to be wrong). Sloppy and lazy and a strategy sure to...
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Jim Grant had a very bullish, very persuasive presentation on New Gold last night. +6.9% today.
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    https://twitter.com/#!/TradeDesk_Steve/status/202785477504401408
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    China, ugly. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/16/1002681/why-chinas-rmb-exodus-is-the-story/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    China, ugly. May prove to be far bigger news than Europe (hurtling towards fiscal union, IMO). http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/china-real-estate-unravels/
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
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