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Japan bonds and gold what? Japanese bond yields are DOWN, the bond market crash that all the doomsday soothsayers have been predicting never did come. Look at Spanish and Italian bond yields, they are pretty much back to pre-crisis levels, this is astonishing given the severity of the debt...

Yea its unprecedented. Central banks have killed market volatility by making everything yield nothing. Cornered investors arent going to sell stocks when there is nowhere else to go.

Yes they do. Central banks hold them as reserves.

Seems like a huge mistake to me, the short sellers sold gold that they can never deliver in June, it was a highly speculative short that was unwound quickly, there is really no fundamental reason for gold to tank. I'd be very surprised if gold made a new 52 wk low in the weeks ahead.

The fed has effectively killed market volatility with their ZIRP and aggressive bond purchases, those things no longer look as attractive to stocks with the current depressed yields, there is just nowhere to go now if you get out of stocks. You are either long SPY long term or flat in this...

We are in no man's land now, all 3 indices have broken their record highs so if you are short, you wont know where to place your stop.

Time to place those bets? :D

2nd huge range bar from the initial range expansion we got last wed, I think we should see SPX 1470 by the end of this week.

Its called a bull market Bill, and this isnt unprecedented, volatility tends to be very low in bull markets, afterall this is the only way to build confidence. Who would want to invest for the "long term" if the market is swinging 1-2% up/down on a daily basis?

Slowly, but surely.

Yea the can will be kicked down the road again, its almost a certainty. Investors have become so desensitized by the drama at Washington that they simply dont care about it and dont want to panic over it anymore. Traders cant induce a correction by shorting stocks because shorts have to cover...

I was talking about single spikes. SPX wasnt that bad but if you were short the NQ during that period... :D

Thats a myth. The upward moves were dramatically sharper than downward moves between the years 1997-2000, of course the subsequent move down after 2000 was just as quick but thats another story. You are risking your money each time you put in a trade, long or short it doesnt matter, there is...

Because its a bull market, and bull markets are characterised by slow grind ups.

If you look at a 20 yr weekly chart of the SPX you see either: 1. a triple top forming 2. a massive bull flag thats going to take SPX well over 2000 if we breakout of it Place your bets. :D

The market lacks a catalyst for such a pullback. I see a painful grind up (for shorts that is).

Being overbought doesnt really mean anything... markets need an excuse to selloff, there is just nothing on the horizon that could possibly trigger this (hence the extremely low vix/volatility). Never short a dull market.

SPX is not the only negative evidence, there are thousands of examples (includes stocks) out there that fit the bill. So the question is how you do know if trend following will work for the particular instrument that you are trading? You'd still need to make an educated guess ya? And SPX has...

This approach is exactly what killed the trend followers last year. Take a look at the SPX. It "trended" upwards for most of H1 before losing over 9% in May, it bottomed out in June and again "trended higher" until it peaked in Sept and again lost over 8% and only bottomed in Nov. You'd...

Exactly. Problem with trend following is you only know you were following a trend (or buying a top) in hindsight. Its the same deal with any other trade that involves betting on direction. The only consistent winners in the market are the ones who dont take risks trading direction i.e...