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That's it in a nutshell. The trend follower determines if there is a trend NOW and if there is, he bets accordingly. Can he lose? Of course, but he is playing the odds: bet on the most likely outcome always and in the long run, he wins. Like betting with a biased coin. When a trend...

Buy and hold is a form of trend following. This is not news. The public doesn't trade, the public invests. Buy&hold, remember? Speaking of cognative[sic] dissonance. how are those price drivers doing? :D

Thanks but I'm not doing it for them. I'm doing for the new traders who get constantly misled by mooks insisting TF doesn't work or TF is just predicting (and therefore doesn't work). These founts of misinformation need to get slapped down now and then lest they overbreed and drown this place...

Did you read the OP? Do you agree that there's a difference between anticipation and prediction? Here's a great example of anticipation. I enter into a coin-flipping game where I know with absolute certainty that one side is favored over the other. The coin will not always come up on the...

Bingo. Trend followers follow trends, we don't predict trends. Nor predict anything else about the market.

Why better? Should I ignore my topic because you want to change the subject? I never said trend followers can't fail. Traders fail for all sorts of reasons. In answer to your question, trend following doesn't have positive expectation primarily when trend followers fail to detect the trend...

Unsurprisingly, surf, you, like Harris and the Qusma dude, never say what the "accepted" definition of forecast is. Did you think nobody would notice? By all means, give us YOUR "accepted" definition of forecast. And remember, any definition that includes sure things will make you look like an...

I almost titled this thread "Define Your Terms". With the subtitle "Some Quants are Idiots". Specifically I'm referring to a post in another that references this article: http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/09/trend-following-forecasts/ Notice how Harris and the Qusma blogger he...

Great point. Surf and GB are too ignorant to realize that even with successful TA, bad money management will often result in system failure. Trading is a complicated machine: it only works when all the parts work and in sync. Blaming TA for every trading system failure is silly. My own...

LMAO! You do realize that description applies to you more than anybody, right? No? Clueless as always. :p

" JS: ... Trend-following would have been great in the '60s, and it was sort of OK in the '70s. By the '80s, it wasn't." A swing and a big miss! :D The '80s is when the most famous trend-following system of all --the Turtle Trading System-- came to prominence. This guy clearly is confusing TF...

I saw that on wiki. There's also this: " In May 2009, Simons was questioned by investors regarding the pattern of losses in a Renaissance fund owned by outside investors while the investments held by Simons and fund associates enjoyed enormous gains in value." Makes me wonder how much of his...

Like Edward Thorp and William Eckhardt, Simons was trained as a mathematician. Like Thorp, Simons was a mathematics college professor. Unless you plan on getting a PhD in mathematics, you'll never have the math preparation that Simons has. BUT ... Mathematicians do tend to specialize. Like...

What keeps it from being a prediction is the probability of winning. We're not talking about betting on the most likely outcome out of ten possible outcomes. There are only two possibilities, one with a probability greater than 50%, the other with a probability less than 50%.. Betting on the...

Wrong. When I place a bet I am betting on the most likely outcome, otherwise I wouldn't bet. Got nothing to do with predicting/guessing the outcome, just playing the odds (betting on the most likely outcome). When I trade with the trend, I'll very probably win. So all I have to do is figure out...

Who said anything about knowing the odds on the coin? That's irrelevant. If I know tails is more likely than heads, regardless if the edge is big or tiny, it still makes sense to bet on the most likely outcome. If I want to optimally size my bet, sure I need to know the correct probability but...

If I know a certain coin is biased to come up tails more often than heads and I start betting on coinflips using that coin, betting tails every time, will I not be profitable in the long-run despite many losses along the way? That's not prediction, that's just using deductive logic. I'm not...

He thinks TF has something to do with prediction, you idiot. His ignorance on the subject is blatant. As is your stupidity.

Nothing is certain in the markets, there are only probabilities. But trading with the trend is a tried-and-true profitable method. However most trend traders don't know how to avoid chop, which is where low winrates and even outright failures come from. NoDoji posted a thread on what to do in...

Simmons clearly doesn't understand trend following. It has nothing to do with prediction. LBR's Principle One: A Trend has a higher probability of continuation than of reversal. No need to predict when you can just play the odds.