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I think I will focus on swing trading (with smaller lots), and long term investing. I understand some people are good at day trading, but it takes lots of time to watch small time frame price action every day, which I can't easily do. For me it's easier to trade the longer term charts, that...

Oh, I get it now. So it's not an easy thing to predict. But looking at the monthly chart it's near historic levels. Seems to me not a bad trade for an investment, if nothing else goes wrong, like negative price, high roll over cost, etc.

I'm thinking of maybe getting into it one contract around $1.62 if it goes back down, and just leave it be as an investment, no stop loss, and maybe add to it if it gets closer to 1.00. I guess then just roll it over until it makes a big move up.

I'm sorry, I don't understand. Are the utilities long or short on natural gas?

Actually I'm not totally newbie. I can handle the losses pretty well emotionally, so I'm not emotionally exasperated actually. Been through many of the challenges with trading already. But you're correct, obviously I don't know what I'm doing and shouldn't be risking much if any on these...

I should clarify that the ES trade today, the failed breakout, was actually a micro trade, several lots, so not as great a loss as if it were ES. Sorry, put wrong chart.

Maybe scale with 2 position out of 3, 3 out of 4, etc.?

I agree with this. I may not even do day trading or even swing trading, as I was mentioning. Tried it before and failed. But if I do it makes sense what you say. But instead of paper trading I think I'd rather trade smaller sizes contracts, like micro minis. My impression is paper trading...

The scaling in idea seems like an interesting strategy. For example, if you normally use 4 contracts say, with scaling you can start maybe with 2 or 3, and leave some if price comes down a bit, and now you can buy more and your risk will be reduced too by the amount it came down. Or you can...

Those were two different trading setups, that's why I used different tactics. One was a breakout and the other I was seeing a likely bounce off resistance. I showed the hourly chart because it show better where that resistance level is, but I was playing it on a 5 minute chart.

I like the scaling in idea in general, and need to do it more. Regarding risk to reward, one problem I'm seeing with smaller risk to higher reward trades is that they often get stopped out and take longer to achieve. In other words, seems like the longer you're in the trade the more likely it...

Here's one from today on S&P, also near the end of the day, this time I was long for the breakout, but got stopped out again. Seemed like a high probability trade, what do you think? One conclusion I'm drawing from my trading is that my technical trades aren't working out, be it head and...

To clarify, it was more of a scalp trade, 1 to 1 risk to reward, quickly get in and out. I wasn't looking to short it very long. From past experience with strong support and resistance there is usually at least some little and quick bounce off which I was trying to catch. But the comments...

This strategy sounds interesting. Thanks.

How can hedging help you not have a stop loss?

That makes sense.

Resistance was at about 3080. Shorted about 3078, SL about 3085. I was concerned that it was last hour of trading so I reduced my position size a little. Maybe that was part of the problem, too volatile of a time for that strategy. But at the same time, I was very high volume on that move...

This is where I got stopped out yesterday in the last hour in S&P. Was looking for a pullback, fading of the resistance, but all of the sudden big volume buying came in and stopped me out, not even a small pullback happened. Not very experienced, is that a decent trade that just got stopped...

Been doing swing trading and have even tried day trading. Not very successful with either, though swing trading has been better. One thing I noticed is stops are killing me in both. Prices often go away but by that time I get stopped out. Been out of the markets for several years and came...

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Surge as Hedge Funds Add to Long Positions https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-prediction-prices-surge-as-hedge-funds-add-to-long-positions-658195