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I'm happy to consider that I missed something, but I don't really see it. Take the theoretical example, and let's apply it to a real stock. ENER is currently sitting at 47, and we can look at the various options greeks and prices to walk forward. Let's say you "know" it will hit 55 at exactly...

A long OTM call is definitely not the best way to play this, no matter what. You've gotten little in the way of delta, you're fighting a serious theta headwind, and you've done it at a pure debit. As a pure debit, you have additional, un-necessary vega risk. Would you buy a ton of 55 calls in...

Quote from trading_time: So are you saying even if there is no or very little open interest you could still get out? Once you own an American contract, you are free to exercise it whenever you want. When you bought the contract, you bought that right, whether the seller of the contract agrees...

This really doesn't make sense either. Buying "several months out" will only reduce your deltas. Also, in this scenario, open interest is irrelevant. If you bought an ITM call, and the price got even more ITM, there's going to be no time value anyway, so just exercise them.

Well, the whole question is pretty meaningless. If you "know" the stock is going to 55--why would you want to take a limited risk by buying calls? If you want limited risk and the best potential profit, then buy a DITM call. If you're willing to take on unlimited risk, then selling the puts...

#1 is actually not a very good way of profiting. At the money, you'll only have a delta of roughly .6. (i.e. you make money at 60% of the speed of the market) #2 doesn't make sense from a ratio perspective. If you knew it was going to move to 55, sell more puts than you buy calls. (to get the...

Well, it was someone "in the know". Here's your answer: Icahn Takes Stakes in BJ's, Lear

Quote from neophyte321: Have you considered storing EOD volume data to a database. Pretty easy if you have a java app already developed. (Well, "easy" is relative). I hadn't really thought about this--a standalone unusual activity application wouldn't be too hard to create and make web...

DTN sadly resets its volume at midnight each night, and my program isn't smart enough to ignore the "0 volume" lines and get the ticks anyway to see how bullish or bearish the volume was. You're right though, the technicals just don't "feel" right for a big breakout up. I'd completely...

Quote from IV_Trader: you can define a "Current Month IV" field , then you can plot it regardless if its expired. That's how I do it , anyway. In IQFeed? Are you storing the IVs each day in a database or something?

Quote from ddunbar: The stat of 80%+ of all options expiring worthless serves to back up their stories and observations. This is a commonly quoted stat which CBOE has refuted on their web site. According to them, less than 40% of options expire worthless, the vast majority of contracts are...

Quote from neophyte321: I've been looking for something exactly like IQFeed. How well does it work? I'd like to pull, say 500 ticks every couple seconds. You could watch 500 symbols and get their ticks fed to you in realtime. You can also query history for time frames ranging from monthly...

Quote from volatilitypimp: This type of data seems to be Dr. Jon "J" Najarian's raison d'etre. Indeed! My method for finding interesting opportunities is probably different from his, but the goal is the same. I see they have compatible software choices, which one would you recommend to...

A good point--you can't really tell until the next day. Still, you can infer a lot. If 500% of the Open Interest traded, and it was all at the ask, you probably get at least 400% new open contracts. :-)

Absolutely agree with you! To be honest, futures just didn't fit my personality--I switched to options because they just "suited" me better. Getting stopped out bothered me. Not knowing the odds bothered me. Watching profits leak away as the price retreats to my profit stop bothered me...

I run it over a watchlist of about 100 stocks every day and sort by Total Power. The oddities will completely jump off the page. If the Volume/OI was very high, the bull power high, and the dollar value significant, I'll take real interest. I always confirm the technical chart makes sense...

It is my own Java application built in DTN's IQFeed. It still needs some work on the "OddFinder", but here's a screenshot. Legend: Bull% = % of trades occuring at the ask Bull Pwr = Contracts * Bullishness (0.0-1.0) Volume = Volume / OpenInterest Bear % and Pwr are obvious Total Pwr...

I may regret biting, but people wrongly treat options like they're mysterious, dangerous beasts. Quote from ddunbar: Because they're less riskier than options? Grammar aside, what would ever make you think that futures are less risky than options? Most option positions I'm in have a...

Mostly sold. Only 39% of the 121k May 100s were bought on the ask. 30% of the June 75, 80, 85s were bought on the ask.

I was really just trying to prevent the inevitable, "How long will $3000 in options last?" threads that would result after the poster's first straddle sale. :-)