Search results

Are you sure about the markets tanking big time if BKs are widespread allowed? Maybe a reaction, yes. But other money groups may feel it is finally the end and the start of a new period and buy in aggresively.

Thanks. So he expects a turn of the cycle on April 19th, about 3 weeks from now. But can't say whether it is a peak or a bottom.

Not sure, but I think he speaks of a debt/equity swap and not a complete wipe out of debt. Thus, leaving bondholders with some upside and ownership. Also, in the matter of high returns for the next 10 years don't forget that coming out of such deep recession immediate returns can be on the...

Velocity of money is a consequence of inflation. You don't influence velocity... you see it "as a result of". You print more money to devalue its worth to generate inflation. As people realize more dollars are needed to maintain the same purchasing power, they will move from paper to assets as...

Help me understand why a reform may make a positive difference. If a reform ensues and m2m does not have to be extended to the entire portfoltio of bad assets enticing banks to start trading, the assets being offered will still carry a low bid and once sold it will be apparent -although not in...

quantinator, may I also have this information? Just pm you too.

Unemployment at less than 1% in 1942.

Can you say what was the P/S ratio for the bottoms of 1937, 1942 and 1974?

Great answer as well. Why not add implosion of one or more reits (cre) in there, as #4.

Although there is a case to be made regarding protectionism and its perils, I think it may not affect dry shipping as much. Non-producing basic materials countries will still require this input... as well as grains.

Agree on short trades, but for other reasons. I think a good bet is that "politics" will make things worse, just like at any other time and certainly during the 30s. It appears that only at extremes, politicos react swiftly. Otherwise they are in no hurry. Conclusion, markets may revolt again to...

On a more serious note, once Chavez goes bust (2009 budget has been made with oil prices at $60/barrel for their more heavier crude selling at half that price now) and perhaps regime changed in Iran, no more cheap oil.

Signs of thawing... " The Fed apparently felt comfortable enough with the current situation to reduce these balances by $126 billion during the week ended January 7. More than half of that reduction came from a reduction in the volume of term auction credit outstanding."...

This is one of the biggest misconceptions out there. A loss on paper can still be considered a loss in value, specially if that paper is used as collateral for other purposes. Just like a loss in value of your home -on paper- has a direct effect on your wealth. If the house decreases in value...

The argument doesn't stop with the Fed succeeding in reflating. The real question is "what", as inflating asset prices (their goal I assume) will lead to a completely different outcome than if reflation were to occur in goods and services (more likely in my view), specially if as you say we are...

No.

I believe (not sure) this is the chart you want to look at: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RESBALNS?cid=123 600% + growth

You need a measurement of M2 here. Increases in monetary base and reserve balances do not translate into inflation so long as M2 doesn't grow, which means money is not making it to loan activity. Recent announcements of MBS purchases as well as other tricks are an attempt to bypass the banking...

Then, what is next is buying credit default swaps on argentine, bolivian and venezuelan debts.

I lived through one ocurrance of hyperinflation, another close call and several periods of very high inflation and can answer this with confidence. Aside from the technical problems described by members earlier the worst consequence brought about by very high inflation happens when it...