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  1. J

    Successful Stop & Reverse - Semi Martingale Trend Following Strategy

    Very nice equity curve over the last 4 years !
  2. J

    Tick trading

    The difficulty with these shorter time frames is to overcome commissions and slippage. You need a super fast platform, computer, probably a VPS close to the exchange, lots of things that add to the cost and complexity of the strategy.
  3. J

    Math Questions

    Have a look at this thread and how Acrary demonstrates that Expectancy doesn't improve consistency: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33654 One series of studies I did was to find out what were the important factors in consistency. I did tests on size of expectation...
  4. J

    what test for 3-4 variables predicting an outcome of 0 or 1

    I would use dummy variables: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dummy_variable_(statistics)
  5. J

    Forex automation & data availability

    You should be able to compare your entry and exit points between IB and Kinetick for the last year. I guess you have taken into account commissions and slippage, so: - are the trades really different ? - do you backtest renko bars, 3 line break and so on ? very difficult to backtest...
  6. J

    Recommend Book on Autotrading?

    Perry Kaufman's book is a solid start: http://www.amazon.com/New-Trading-Systems-Methods-Wiley/dp/047126847X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1311842143&sr=8-1
  7. J

    French Trading Film

    There you go: http://www.bringmovies.com/videos/1727/krach.html Disclaimer: this is NOT a good movie :D
  8. J

    These FX traders pull 100%+ per month, why can't hedge funds do this???

    Leverage is a factor: - With an account value of 100k a FX Retail trader can scalp 5-10 millions and profit from the intraday market volatility. - HF manage several millions and can't scalp billions to replicate the same kind of performance: they have to scale in and out in longer time...
  9. J

    Cornix's Forex Trading Journal

    Hi Cornix, Are you still only trading EUR/USD ? same setups ? Do you have a target in terms of profit ? Good luck with your new challenge !
  10. J

    Birth of a trader

    Hi Frank, To have fun is important, you must enjoy the game to succeed ! Here are my comments for today's session: 1st trade: you were focusing on HL from the previous bars but looking at the previous swings you would have seen a wonderful channel. I've attached my 5 min EUR/USD spot...
  11. J

    credit default swaps

    Hedge funds trade CDS but their risk (the counterparty risk) is very closely monitored by banks and prime brokers as can be the health of a company. They won't be able to monitor the financial strength of an individual the same way. I'm not sure how CDS on a margin account could work: -...
  12. J

    credit default swaps

    You don't need to know Stochastics Calculus to trade vanillas CDS as you don't need to know Brownian Motion to trade options. However, the return is very low: you earn approximately 100 bps per year with an index like the iTraxx. This is interesting for institutions because this product...
  13. J

    Revenge trading

    It can help to identify the reasons why you're revenge trading: - are you focused on your PnL ? => be focused on trading well your setup instead. - you want to get back your loss immediately ? => focus on the long term and imagine all the opportunities that will rise and the robustness...
  14. J

    Birth of a trader

    Dear Frank, Though it is always easier to comment at the end of the day, I hope the comments I have attached will help you. Overall, I have the impression you've been chasing the previous swings all day long because you missed it (used to do that a lot :) ) Once a trend line has been...
  15. J

    Why do 95% of retail traders lose?

    Very true Tommo. On the other side, you also have to consider 2 things: - what is the percentage of people that are really serious ? If do your own due diligence, you would choose the cheapest of these brokers: the percentage goes to 50% of positive accounts. - what is the percentage...
  16. J

    Why do 95% of retail traders lose?

    What are you talking about :confused: Shouldn't have wasted my time to reply to you initially... Good luck with your trading.
  17. J

    Why do 95% of retail traders lose?

    How reliable is your statistics ? I'll give you some hope: - it is much better if you trade FX http://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-brokers-account-profitability-comparison/ - and be careful with averages...
  18. J

    How is EURUSD still over 1.40?? (3/25/11)

    I'm looking at EUR/USD spot, maybe you look at 6E and we'll have different charts for sure ! It's been a while since interest rates haven't been changed and my experience is quite limited so I can't tell :) However, volatility could very well expand since we're already in a congestion zone...
  19. J

    Oanda losses connection around NFP...again!

    They only pay for limit orders which I barely use.
  20. J

    Oanda losses connection around NFP...again!

    That spread is money I'm willing to pay my broker for his hard work :D There's one broker who is willing to work for free, still no feedback from them... http://www.worldspreads.com/en/home.aspx
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