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So on a side note ... What good are prob ITM and OTM if no one seems to care what they say or mean anything at the time of purchase

Any Choosing Confidence Intervals videos that you'd recommend? There's tons out there... Also I'd agree .. going off P(ITM) or P(OTM) the market will bend you over ... Not working so well for my paper account

So are you saying 10D is too far OTM? If something happens I don't have much wiggle room to help myself?

Not sure on probablity of the above happening unless you were in a crazy high volitile trade... Or your spread was not very big... But at 10 Delta it would be decent enough to prevent this I would assume ...

Ya I think his math was off on accident ... Its all good I know what he meant .... Hopefully haha. So SPX you can't excercise early so that seems more risky.. ?? That's one of the bigger reasons I chose SPY. SPX seems bang or bust and kinda not my style. Unless I can get wider ranges in SPX...

So you're saying I just buy 2 sigma options and I'm a winner ? :wtf: I'm gonna try this. Talk to me about Iron Condors ...

Yes .. and that is why I'm not doing 9:1 ... 1:4 is about as risky as I'll go ... I've been trying to stay heavily in the ~30D range ... But not sure what you mean by the last part of shorting stops and disaster re

Maybe the past couple weeks with earnings beats all over effected more than normal... It was making wild $1-1.50 jumps at different times for some of my options ending in 1-2 minutes. I do need to test my strat in more scenarios ...

Good to know ... But any thoughts on OP? Also how long you been trading SPY?

negative expactancy ... where did you see that? I looked into SPX, but when I got ~60D out ~10 delta, I am looking at a 1:9 ratio almost for the max P v max L. Yes the contract pricing would be better instead of blowing $52 every IC on a 10 contract play I would only spend about ~$15-20 on SPX...

Anyone else out there trading SPY as one of their mains? I took a beating the past few weeks on it ... first time with SPY through the major ER quarterly. Learned my lesson to be careful during this time as all my trades were going well until now, then they all flipped and went to crap real bad...

When closing out iron Condors I was curious ... If I close one side like the call side if it is up money ... Do I have to close out the puts yet? Or does it just turn into another option like a .. covered put?? Not sure what that would be called, still new so be gentle :) Example below:

I use Ameritrade ... .65 per contract on open and close seems reasonable to me ... Plus their platform is super easy to use ..

"It" is the SPY price ... I got in just below 301

Ah I see. So this takes into account the probability of it hitting ITM based on current info and changes the P/L to match that probability? So if things change and let's say it stays just outside the 305 call and expires OTM... The P/L still wouldn't be very good in the green?

Does break even only apply on the last day when the option expires? The below has 4 days left and I'm down ~150. How do I take into consideration of time decay and breakeven ... For me I would think that I'm still ahead of the breakeven, so I should be green since breakeven is 303.87 I would...

Well not looking for a right answer ... Was curious what others thoughts were on to compare to mine. Always room to grow and adjust for new strategies ... Ya didn't think about portfolio to position aspect ... That's a good point. I stick mainly to ETFs and more specifically SPY, QQQ, IWM and...

Curious as to what you guys use for a good trade in your book on profit to loss ratio. I stick to about 5-10% total account for max loss so my ratio fluctuates around but normally it's like 1:3 or 1:4....

Ya they are getting close to being ITM ... At the moment I'm about $60 green out of a max $155 profit. I'll probably be closing tonight when I get home.

Ya that makes some sense ... Thanks for that.