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The Chinese central bank should just hire the stable coins to run the Yuan/USD peg. Had this massive move in the Yuan but the stable coins just shake off historic moves in the dollar like it didn't even happen. I don't know the commercial paper markets at all but I would suspect if you started...

I would say that study shows that colonoscopies slightly lower death by cancer but only by 18%. I would have expected more dramatic results given we are talking an 18% difference in a small risk. You can't say that is bunk science though. That is a really nice sample size.

We have absolutely no solutions right now to anything involving the climate other than political games of moving carbon emissions to different boundaries so we can blame someone else and pretend we are doing something. I remember all the ethanol investment that took places years back that was...

The average and median recession means absolutely nothing. An average and median has meaning if sampling from something like human height because human height is all from the same distribution. Finding the average and median height by sampling from humans, cows and deer then comparing that...

I am not a fan of her but I can't imagine there is any portfolio of stocks that she could buy for the ARK Autonomous Tech. & Robotics ETF that has done well the past year. She can't just turn it into an inverse fund and short tech. She can't hold a 50/50 mix of General Mills and Kelloggs in the...

I am sure this is already happening now. It makes no sense to believe China can't make chips when so much chip manufacturing is in Taiwan. Our AI breakthroughs are all pretty much open source so they don't need to hack anything, just install Git. I had just read they are working on a train for...

This really underestimates how manipulated people are by social media. I mean we are basically trending towards a 1 party system watched over by technology. Normally, Democrats would get crushed here because it's the economy, stupid. When Democrats do much better than expected in this election...

I watched quite a bit of Meta Connect 2022 this morning trying to find some bright spots but they really do make it tough. Metaverse basketball really sums things up. Who exactly do they believe is the audience for VR basketball? If you are into basketball you aren't going to want to shoot fake...

I am not fan of China but it is ridiculous for people to say they are the cause of global warming when the biggest thing we have done in the US to reduce our emissions is ship our heavy industry to China. Global warming is absolutely real and the solutions we have to global warming are mostly...

I think we are moving too fast right now to bother with FRED on interest rates and its slower frequency compared to FedWatch. We have shifted up in expectations quite a bit from 9/12 I am a fan of the stacked area chart they have in the historic data section too if you look at the most...

It is really no different than underwriting an insurance policy on your friend's new car. It only makes sense for a company to underwrite many uncorrelated insurance policies so they are collecting more in premiums than what they are going to payout in car repairs based on the statistical...

I can remember he use to come over the radio in the middle of nowhere PA talking about how commercial planes are dropping chemicals on people, fluoride in the water is doing something that made no sense. That was 15 years ago though before people went insane that Alex Jones of all people is...

I just deleted it again. I just don't see how it is possible to be on Twitter without reading utterly toxic bullshit. Even people I know who are absolutely brilliant based on research papers I have read from them seem to turn into retards on Twitter. I just don't think there is much content...

"find your passion" "trust the process" Literally every single professional sports team now has the motto of "Trust the process" What is hysterical to me is how serious people post things like this on Twitter like they are Socrates saying something profound and original when I literally can't...

It is so cringe and bad it makes me want to buy more as the purist of contrarian bets. I couldn't pull the trigger yesterday though so I don't think I can do it today. Thinking more about it, I have established a core long term position instead of a trade. I am more interested in the...

A blockchain can never compete with the speed of a write operation to a non-distributed ledger that doesn't bother with distributed consensus. The central bank already has a type of implicit proof of stake too. China already figured out that a blockchain won't scale as needed because it will...

A bull or bear flag is really just buying or selling a dip. A triangle is kind of like buying a dip on volatility. There are enough human traders in the markets that big round numbers are favored for levels. Nothing is more indicative of that bias than the total arbitrary obsession society has...

It is hardly obvious why a central bank would need to use a blockchain for a centralized digital currency. If anything, I would think a digital Rupee on a blockchain will just be a slower digital Yuan that is not on a blockchain.

5 losses in 51 months is hugely different than 1 loss in 9 months. Take a quarter out right now and start flipping it to see how trivial it is to get runs of 5 heads or 5 tails. You could even flip it enough to get 5 heads, 1 tail and 3 heads or the inverse. You won't flip a fair coin though 51...

IMO she probably should have sold this more like it is a type of tech index instead of pretending to be a hedge fund. If this was sold as the ARK innovation index she could just say the index is down. Instead it implies she should be outperforming from active management even though I don't know...