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The stock CAN, ofc, theoretically just as easily return to 10. But liquidy providers usually make sure it won't. Look at all the crashes of SPX and then compare it with the time it took to trade at the same level. And i'm talking crashes on daily charts not on 5min TF 10 point hiccups. So...

gotcha.

Hey, So markets collectively seem to be in this waiting game to see whether BOJ is having 150 as the ceiling price of USDJPY and at the same time anxiously waiting for that free money the central bank will give to every trader that is long the JPY. And there are plenty. Every sentiment gauge is...

yeah, i figured i was way late with the vola idea, lol. But i do get his point. He identifies visual ranges and just disregards the concept of price. In most cases, especially when ranges are tight and timeframes are short he would be "right" while being wrong. If i can put it like that.

wow, 19 pages of discussion that % changes don't matter? After a -50% fall, it takes +100% to get to the same level so it (usually, but not always!) takes multiple times more time to get back to that level. if it didn't, options would be waay mispriced. It's all about the price of volatility...

Are you saying that trading fx futures get you better fills during news events than spot fx?

look up liquidity vs volatility in google or just ask chatgpt. And it's common logic. If i was wrong, then everybody would be a trillionaire trading news. There simply isn't an idiot out there willing to "go short volatility" (read: counter your trade) when there's a 99% chance for a...

Liquidity and volatility don't work like that. It absolutely does not mean that. I'll save you a lot of time - you won't find a broker like that.

Who would fill you during news events? Who is that idiot willing to lose like that? If you got a guaranteed fill (without spread widening) then everybody would just put a 5 pip buy stop order above market and 5 pip stop order below market 1 minute before employment report. Wrong. Noone is...

That's because option+underlying traders price out those who just play the underlying. It's really a matter of where you stand on the food chain. Who's money are you taking? Who is taking yours? Playing the underlying (aka direction) is just half the game. Why miss out on the other half?

That's the thing. The "safer" you wanna be the more capacity constrained you will be. There's no other way around it. So no, you can't lever up.

Sure. To benefit from those catalysts you have to be IN the market BEFORE it happens. And that requires a whole new thinking. And yes, once you think that way you no longer care WHEN they happen as long as they DO happen. Trading events after they happen is just a losers game. Eventually...

no it's not, It has the lowest imp volatility on avg compared to any other asset class. A nice little theory that has pretty much zero value in trading. It's good tho for ur own piece of mind because knowing all that makes us think we are smarter. it's great that people still believe it...

As long as you take flat price risk, all of your strategies are priced out. That's what the guy who is the other side of your trade cares about. As long as you are directional, you are priced out. All you do is retrofit a combination of indicators for a given historical period and then magically...

Well, you'd support higher unemployment and overall lower standard of living then. Sure, housing prices would be a lot lower too but you'd still wouldn't be able to afford them. My God, why would you ever think that if the housing prices were lower then suddenly you'd be able to afford it ...

Exactly, a very important point ! Yes, inflation is due to supply constraints, not because of healthy consistent rise in demand. Sure, in short term, the latter can get speculatively elevated but speculation pyramid will always find its way back to the beginning. What's more, imo, in the...

Why should it be anything different ? It's the only asset class where people actually GO TO WORK for your money. The only reason for any company's existance is to make a profit. You wouldn't do any business if you knew that u'd make a negative margin consistently, would you ? Now, while...

lol yeah, makes sense, even if it falls further. The more it falls the more anxious the world gets. If the CB's are proven wrong then their whole existance becomes questionable among all other things. Losing money in exchange to see the world burn is, in fact, the right strategy.

Doesn't that make it less valuable ? Atm, i can only see value in private crypto by moving illicit capital from one place to another and to avoid paying taxes. And i can see a strong need for decentralized coins traded on dark networks once CB's go all digital and IDless cash no longer exists...

It's so well written, that it should be a front page sticker on ET. (Y)