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  1. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    ZN resistance on an FOMC spike is 130'285 and 131'060. At that stage, equities become too cheap to ignore. So watch those bonds and treasuries.
  2. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Everytime TNX gets close to 1.9%, equities catch a bid. That pattern is based on the last auction at 2%.
  3. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Massive amount of buy stops sitting above 1210.
  4. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Investor intelligence latest data: still a heavy historical amount of bears. It will be a tall order for them to succeed for very long, it's just too crowded. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
  5. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

  6. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

  7. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    I could not disagree more with that statement. ES, NQ and TF at the 2009 lows, NQ was the one that pointed to a low being made by not making a new low while ES and TF did.
  8. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    NDX monthly chart. Back above 2007 highs and the perfect bounce off the 20 month moving average this month. Note precise resistance this month at the 10 month moving average. The monthly close is what counts longer term, so that is the broad zone we are playing with now. No need to get...
  9. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    That is clearly not what I said. Read again: what we know, it knows. So there is no sense in trying to get ahead of the curve. But there are very good odds that the market priced in the Greek default in August and possibly even a mild US recession. Anything worse has not been priced in, but...
  10. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Usually once the trend is set after IB, it holds on FOMC days for 2 or 3 hours. I'm still waiting for a hit of ES 1248 and subsequent reaction before betting big on the short side, or of course, NQ failure at 2283. But frankly, I still prefer scalping this market every day, than playing hero.
  11. M

    Germany has a lower unemployment rate than US.

    Every worker's job is protected by unions. Unions work with management to sort things out, but above all, no one on their boards make as much as the stupefying salaries/options paid to US execs, who for the most part under perform year after year.
  12. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    I made it known here a while back that I am an NQ trader/chartist first and foremost because it is the heads up (or down) for ES and even ZN. The fact that it closed the 8/3 gap (2297.75, and still being picked up as I type) and ES still hasn't (1248), makes me a little weary about placing big...
  13. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    I'm neither a bull nor bear, I trade the trend until it hits an extreme in sentiment then I prepare for the reversal. I will be curious to see the Investor Intelligence data tomorrow morning.
  14. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    NQ bear flag was negated on 8/30, and the triangle upside break on the RTH hourly on 9/14 confirmed it. Bears would have to get back below 2215 to regain strong control. If they do, well then yes it could get nasty. But for now, these are just high vol pullbacks (VIX above 30, it is to be...
  15. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    I would not get too excited about the downside. We definitely hit a pocket, but this is an upward channel for NQ, no longer a bear flag. Maybe a visit lower, but I still think we will see ES 1248. Just one close above that 50 dma and it will be quite a squeeze.
  16. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Large traders sold the market at 14:42 and 14:43. NQ also reached the top of the channel prior to that, so we could be in for some selling. The key will be for NDX to hold 2290.
  17. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    No improvement in the internals coming into the last hour. Not chasing this. Staying flat due to NDX 200 dma noise.
  18. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Someone really, really wants to get NDX to close back above its 200 dma.
  19. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Ten year note futures (moves inversely to yields). The contract to watch today. It is rare to get the kind of gap up we saw this morning in this contract. That's where the money is going, not gold. On the other hand, big moves like this in treasuries can easily reverse, as it tends to mean...
  20. M

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Maybe only 130'190, but we have been consolidation at highs all morning (130'140/130'160) and that has a lot of pent up energy. But it all depends on equities right here. NQ really fighting hard.
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