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38.2% fibo retr. from Aug 2010 low to Nov. 2010 high is at about 1310. It is about $60 down from this level. 50% is at about $1285.

This is true. Whenever I contacted a university professor I never got a reply. This is just amazing. You contact Bill Gates and you may get an answer. You contact Dr. Joe Crank of Nowhere Univ. and he plays big shot. I bet the study in that paper is completely wrong, from start to finish.

What is a virtual and a FTR? Thanks

I also like this strategy but I would hesitate implementing it. I recall it was very popular in the late 1990s. many with investments in dot.com bubbles never recouped their money. The key question is about the stop-loss. If all stocks start going down in synch when do you say this is it and you...

If long at the close of 1/03 GBPUSD hit the stop loss on 01/05 or during the day after. GBPJPY cross is doing fine. So far about +300 pips. One thing I don't see is what determines which currency goes up and which goes down. In GBPJPY if GBP goes up, JPY goes down. Why does the eclipse...

There is nothing wrong with data mining. It is used every day by thousands of firms around the world to improve drastically their operation. the issues found in the literature are philosophical rather than real.

Do you have to say anything about Pardo's book or you will keep trolling forever?

I also like the metrics you mentioned. Good suggestions. The important thing is that you provided a reason for looking at those ratios. Most people throw suggestions without justification. For example a profit factor of 5 may be a terrible thing if DD is excessive. This is in reference to the...

I suppose the next time you are cornered you will talk about friends in other planets or universes or dimensions? Are you trying to scare people away from these boards?

Why just 1 to 5 attributes? Did you pull that out of nowhere or it is related to the problem in a way you only knew? If you know in advance how many attributes are significant in a mining problem yes you can reduce the search space but in reality you don't know.

People who trade don't have time to write books about specifics of trading. As a result, it is axiomatic that books will not offer you any insight or edge. So stop fooling yourself. By the way, why don't you tell us something you learned from Pardo's book that can help us make money or trade...

Whether you will win or not going contrarian will depend on avgwin/avgloss. Examples: (1) Assume avgwin/avgloss = 1, win rate = 0.9 Expectancy = 0.9 x k - 0.1 x k = 0.8 x k yes, you make money. (2) If avgwin/avgloss = 0.1 Expectancy = 0.9 x 1 x k - 0.1 x 10 x k = -0.1 x k no...

Why are the rest noise and profit factor isn't? All metrics are related in a way or another. Why 10+ years for intraday? Why 25+ years for daily? I think you should offer some justification for these bold statements of yours. You may be right but I have seen more people being wrong...

The optimal exit strategy for any arbitrary setup in the case of loss is based on the percentage of account at stake. The optimal startegy for exit with profit depends on particular market conditions, like s&r and fibo levels, specific patterns, etc. and I don't see at all how backtesting...

Happy Holidays to all of you!

Can you explain what the numbers on the attachment mean?

Anything about the future?

High probability > 0.7 Low probability < 0.7 The above assumes risk/reward <1 The problem then is one of calculating the probability of a setup. Usually, backtesting the setup conditions may provide a measure of the probability. I find this a boring subject.

Marriage is risky business. If it works out you will have a nice life but if it goes sour you will live in hell. Close to 95% of married people live in hell. Marriage is something to judge from its results, not from its objectives. I think it is better to find a woman who is suffering a lot...

:) I have a feeling something is fishy with that paper. I have no time to analyze the results. Here is an analysis from a blog with examples that indicates no significant advantage was gained when moon phases were used to trade SPY http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/?p=15