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    Predicting randomness

    I only hope you believe what you write. Good luck and think it over.
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    Predicting randomness

    So today's bounce @ 3:20 pm off yesterday's EXACT close in the SPOOS was random? The three rejections off an attempt at an intraday high today @ 7:39, 8:19 and 8:53am in the SPOOS was again a random event? Calculate the odds of that event and get back to me. Good Luck
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    Anything Can Happen

    Charlie Dow, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with your post-dated analysis but the reasons you post are illusive. Was your analysis simply price action higher highs and lower lows or did you throw volume analysis and/or detrended price analysis in the hopper?
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    Anything Can Happen

    Nice move!!! Very symmetrical day. 1st and last half hours.:)
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    Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

    Art, Thank you. Nice thread!!!
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    Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

    Unbelievably cool. I'm a little scared though 'cause I could actually read it faster and better than regular prose!!!
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    Book: The Misbehavior of Markets

    I think the book has merit. But not in the sense that he reurgitates a profitable trading system which to his (their) merit he cautions the reader from the outset. But if you read and think about what he describes there are some points which if developed can be used to profit from the markets.
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    Sucker's Rally?

    Well here we are at support again. If we continue south we are still sitting on some beefy longterm support around 1160 in the ES. We've builtin a new layer of support where we sit now. Seasonality looking favorable. Is this buy the dip again?
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    Sucker's Rally?

    So, We are up into wed. and massively sideways into Friday. Volatility is up as is usually the case near bottoms buuuuttttttt this time feels a little different....
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    Random OR Non-random Walk?

    There are times when the market switches from random to non-random behavior and that is when "fat tails" in all time frames exert their collective influence. Dependence both short- and long-term also exert a non-random effect. Sound familiar-- Mandelbrot. This has been "proven." But...
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    Which is better, an MBA or PhD?

    Actually even if you are the boss you'll take crap from your wife, your kids, your employees, the board, etc. But it is nice to have "phuk U money" which in Tagalog means take a hike.
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    Sucker's Rally?

    Good point. Just a guess. High on Wednesday, sideways into Friday then look out below but what I know.
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    Sucker's Rally?

    So is the coming rise into this Wednsday a bull trap for another sizeable leg down into the end of October or has the next leg up into new high's in store?
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    scalping the e-mini

    That's funny.
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    Today's ES Pivots . . .

    Indeed. Nice thing about bear and bottoming markets is the range picks up substantially. The crawl up the wall and 0.2% days is brutal for traders.
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    200 Billion Tax Increase

    Last time we had a net positive trade balance was the 70's and we had horrible economic conditions with 18% interest rates, rampant inflation, several recessions, and a stagnant equities market? But I love your system development. :)
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    Most Useful Technical Indicators

    Most usefult TA. The one you develop and/or tweak yourself insofar as you hopefully gain the understanding of what is going on. Hence the euphemistic "tape reading" so many talk about. Read Grob. Good Luck
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    Big Move Up Imminent

    Better bounce soon or look out below.
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    scalping the e-mini

    TIKI --- DJ 30 tick is reported every 6 seconds. With 30 stocks the proportionate number above or below the line could be dramatically affected by missed events between the 6 second ticks vs. NYSE tick with a large # tick would be expected to have less error. Does YM and ER and TYX and...
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    Big Move Up Imminent

    Excerpt from "Bll Cara: Capital Markets... October 08, 2005 Week #40 (2005-10-08) in Review Executive Summary: A fundamental shift is underway in capital markets. Due to the anticipated major weakness for both stocks and bonds in the weeks ahead, 80-pct cash weighting ought to be...
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