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  1. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Distributor, predator, terminator I do not believe we can go down without major stop run
  2. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Last few days there is no trading at all... We need break somewhere from this nomanland
  3. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Problem is that we can be topping (I do not know but it is quite possible). Even island reversal is real danger. I am using "averaging in" strategy myself, but retacement somewhere to 60-70 area is well possible, it will be no black swan. Keep position during 70 point retracement looks to...
  4. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    I am not trading today. As far as I see situation today, we are bouncing between 100 and 200 SMA on SPY. I do not want to be on incorrect side if one of these will break, and I want "support the winnig side". If we will turn down now it will look like double top and it can be very violent.
  5. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    I think it we will break bellow 116 we will see gap fill on daily very quickly. This triangle needs to solve - and that gap is big magnet. Edit : Do you feel tension?
  6. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    We break up the top of downtrend channel so I donot know where will be top of uptrend channel. However it follows some rules and top is or now, or it will be about 30. However we are for sure above the bottom line so short trades are relatively safe. However I will short just above 24 today...
  7. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    It is very difficult short with 200MA bellow. If we canget at 1105 I will try buy some dip.
  8. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Short 91.25. Disater stop at 1104. After my chart we broke down uptrend channel. It can be false breakour however but this has very big target potential cca 65 If it will return above 96-97I will end trade. Edit. Out at BE it is not workign
  9. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Bottom of my channel is approximately 86.50. So if we will go up to app 85 trend will be broken. However it is time to go long but I will look to see some signs of recovery. There should be plenty of upside. If we will just continue "copulating" with bottom today (the bounce will be not...
  10. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    With this I fully agree. We can not go to 1080 - this will break the uptrend channel that has bottom about 1087 for now. Because we practically did not tested the bottom of channel I expect it will not break immediately.
  11. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    There is very little of room to go up. Bottom of channel is about 1085 so go long looks too dangerous to me. I will wait for pullback bellow 1100 (it must be not today)
  12. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Ok, I little forecast. When the brown line (the breakout line) will cross bellow the sky blue line (bottom of current channel) this bottom will be tested at that moment, or short after. However, it is not time bar chart so I do not know when it will happen.
  13. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Ok, here it is.
  14. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Hm, about safer longs in ES... you are not shorting it correctly. I am looking for swing long right now but will do it somewhere about or bellow 80. Very probaly I am not missing any train. And I will short go go there, I believe good chance will be Monday 20 minutes after begin RTH
  15. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    We are on top of uptrend channel. If I constructed it properly we can not go over about 1104. Bottom of channel is about 1070 now Longs are very dangerous now. Breaking top of channel twice isvery, very rare thing. There will be one bigger down day Monday or Tuesday and we were still in breakup.
  16. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    They lifted the market as far as they could. If we will tomorrow fall down 50 points it will be not that terrible considering last days...
  17. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Top of mine SSC (specially secretly constructed) downtrend channel for ES is for now about 82-83. Because bottom works as resistance I am quite confident in it for next 1-2 days.
  18. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Uptrend channel broken. I expect retest of it at 80 or above, planning to go short there.
  19. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    In my uptrend channel is bottom around 70. If we will go lower than it will be trend change, otherwise it is just chance to use pullback.
  20. P

    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    Bottom of uptrend channel is about 45, top at 1082 for now. So we can fall easily 25 points and it can be still considered as pullback in uptrend. I think this newly formed channel will last 1-2 weeks. Miserable volatility supports that we go up.
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