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NVDA July 6th calls look great here if we get a break out of this little consolidation.

Would you mind posting your fill price and Date to expiry. Would be helpful to understand thought process thanks

supply and demand for options move vol. So if there is a lot of demand for options vol will increase. Im stating WHY would there be so little demand/ so much supply that the IV would be driven to all time lows even lower than any NVDA historical vol point. The market is smart is it not? That...

So quantitatively we can say buying NVDA vol here offers a good r/r. But what about qualitatively? NVDA had earnings a month ago so demand for vol has dropped to its all time low because no up coming events? I think there is more to this. Maybe the "sell vol in summer" effect? Over supply of vol...

@Robert Morse Hey Rob, so as you have pointed out the 30 day HVOL is 29% vs the 25% Implied vol. If you go the the 6 month it gets even worse. With IV ~= 32% (with 2 earnings in there). Implied vol should trade at a premium to historic and so if the IV is 25% for the next 30 days we "should" see...

When an asset moves higher is it excess demand or over supply? The reason why I am asking is, I want to know whose lunch I am eating. Let's look at an example to give context to my question. NVDA is trading at all time low implied vol for all expiaries in the first year. I want to increase my...

edge is just an advantage you have over other participants. Retail do have some edges over institutions such as, you can pick our spots (not forced to trade), you do not have to keep your risk to a certain level (ie. you are allowed to sell naked puts un-hedged where industry regulations may not...

realization of gamma? = IV - RV? If yes, are you recommending I delta hedge the calendar? dynamics of forward vol? = How low or high forward vol is relative to other strikes/history? Forward vol = sqrt( (V2^2*Dte2 - V1^2*Dte1) / (Dte2-Dte1)). Just to make sure I Have it right.

It is a well know "fact" that calendars increase when volatility increases. This however is the furthest thing from the truth. The back month vol has to increase by more than root time for IV to have a positive impact on the calendar. OR the front month has to decrease by more than root time...

77.5

I think that's exactly what I said in my post

Awesome thread. Also what options date to expiration di you like? Are you more into the weeklies or...?

Mpc expected earnings in July 26. The July 20/27 is .35. I got filled. When they confirm that calendar should go to $1. MPC usually implies a 4% earnings move which confirms our theory.

What deltas do you usually buy? And do you buy when the breakout happens or do you buy in anticipation of the breakout?

But if the front vol increases by more than square root time wouldn't it make sense to long the calendar? Nice calendar trade today. MPC JULY 20/27. For .35. Earnings are on the 26th. A little bit of vol today causing the July 20 to push above the July 27.

@optionsinvestor I know you have had a great run in this journal but I am having a difficult time understanding your logic on your trades. Could you explain the basis of your strategy in a short 1 or 2 sentences thanks.

It can easily be computed with a pretty close range to what the diffuse vol will be in the July expiration. You can also compute it for the September expiration. The numbers prompted to be a buyer of the September event vol. I can do the math if you or anyone is interested.

same buck, same expiration, same vol, same stock. You would also be implying an OTM call is better than an in the money call. "more bang for your buck"

Option x3. I must be very stupid. Can you explain the reason for the strangle to be more profitable than a straddle. I will tell you the reason why they BOTH have the same expected value. If they are both priced at the same implied vol which single stocks usually have (less skew compared to...

LOL dude you sound like a young guy who has lost all his savings trying to trade the market....nothing wrong with that. Pack up your bag and move on. Everyone experiences draw downs that make them doubt themselves. You have 2 choices. Stick with it and lose more money (eventually you will come...