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I think you are either coming off a late bender or have been reading way to much Nassim Taleb tweets. I am not too sure about you, but we mortals only have access to historical data. Yes, the data is usually noise, but it is possible to find a signal. If you are a good forecaster, your...

Hi, I want to do a backtest and compare it against buy and hold. My question is what should I use for my order sizing function if I want the strategies to be comparable? Should it be: 1) An absolute share amount 2) A percent of equity 3) A fixed dollar amount For example here is a simple...

Nice trade, it's trading at around 2.55 right now. That was a juicy one

small green day for me

I feel like you are the guy who goes to the strip club and asks the bouncer - "So if I throw a $5 bill at her, she will sleep with me right?"

I did not know you two had disagreements. But the rule of thumb is, listen to dest. He has a lot of experience. I was being a tad sarcastic regarding Kim. Kim is not highly regarded on this board amongst option traders. We got him banned late last year. But that's in the past and I have no...

LOL I really hope @destriero reads this! If I recall correctly, Kim was making the markets in most of the single names. Which would explain his almost impossible fills. Good luck! I'll be keeping an eye on this one :)

Yea it's cool to have new people join the group. Surprisingly there has been no BS on this thread and most of the top dogs on this board have commented on here at some point. I have only heard good things about Kim! Last I remember he was doing really well with the steady options hedge fund he...

I actually got filled on just before the close on a Sep 45 MLHR straddle. Stock is only up 2.50 from strike after news, hopefully we can hang around this 47.5 number. Thanks @Magic! Out of curiosity are you using @SteadyOptions service? Your strategy seems very similar to theres. If so, how...

Ill post screen shot when I get home. Short DRI 125/130 Oct Strangle for 6.24 Short MLHR 45 Oct Straddle for 4.80

Are you using overnight hours in your opening range? Or is it like the first 5 minutes of the open sets the range?

Nice fill magic. Did you just get out?If so care to explain your methodology of holding for over an hour?

Out of GIS at 3.04. +.97 Nice!

Magic any chance you are short adbe or gis vol? Both of then were on my short list (however I did not take ADBE).

I am Short GIS straddles. Into earnings. Usually I think of an outcome and then pick a strategy to play that view rather than the other way around. So I don't think I will be much help with skip strike bflys. Regarding regular butterflys, I am just looking for a pin to my strike. I buy the...

LOL I closed when CBRL was 172! The fly is break even right now. oh brother

Out for .31. Loss of 1.24.

The kelly criterion is negative for OP statement - meaning he has no edge and should not bet a dime on the trade. Even with the largest edge, the kelly will never go above 1. If it ever was larger then one you would eventually go bankrupt. Unless it was a riskless bet and your success win rate...

I think its important you figure this one out on your own. It's quite a simple problem. You just plug in the numbers. If you cant figure it out, your research ability may not be up to par for trading. Maybe edit your post to show what you have tried. Writting out an attempt seems to help me

Hey no problem ffs1001, I definitely did not state it right. Since I am bearish, what I meant to say is if my thesis is wrong and the stock rallies, I will lose 1/2x my max profit. Of course I have larger down side risk if the stock drops more than 10% tomorrow. I am specifically talking about...