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Not sure what to make of today. NQ blasts to new a all time high, SP finishes just under hugely important 2800 level, RTY about 1% under all time high, YM off from recapturing its June 11th close, and SMH still looking vulnerable. Usually I just blame FAANG when everything isn't in lock step...

Yes, any approach that uses stops will be stopped out of some high volatility days that do end up moving big in the predicated direction of the trade. That is a cost of business for any system that uses stops, you trade protection against huge losses against the odds you may miss out on a big...

I've implemented some things in my CL and NQ daily directional trading over the past few months that had back tested well by increasing the average overall single unit return and also slightly lowering the average single unit draw down. The concepts are simple and nothing new. But if you...

Interesting spot here. SPX cash has failed to conquer the 2780 - 2800 zone three previous times going back to late February. This would be the 4th failure if it cannot shake off the trade war news and power ahead. A failure here would also create daily time frame negative divergence patterns...

Just interested to see if anyone hedges small risks amounts like the example. My first impression is the max risk level of -$600 is too small worry about setting up a counter position hedge, but I thought to throw it out there.

You are making a directional trade each day on the NDX using NQ futures. A simple long or short call made each morning trading two NQ futures contracts each with a -15 stop loss (-$300 each). 1 contract is entered at 10:00 EST and 1 is entered at 11:00 EST in the same direction. Trades that...

OK, B1S2 I agree the SP 500 monthly uptrend is clearly intact and the monthly bull pennant is in play based on the chart alone. Question: Where would the July monthly candle need to finish for you to consider it a bearish candle? Below 2600 or something lower?

Love this piece of YouTube gold. BTW, who or what is "paper" when he says big paper selling?

To clarify, I don't mean a flash crash scenario here. Something where a repeated daily scenario occurs within like a 5 - 10 trading day span that sees automated/program selling without any structured bid support from other automated/programmed systems to support the FAANG stocks.

Looks like the semis (SMH) broke today, so the FAANG is the only firewall left holding equities afloat. If you are going to play a swing break to retest the lows, might consider NQ vs. ES. ES is -160ish to retest lows ($8,000 notional), whereas the NQ will play catchup and shed -750 points to...

I've been into this one for a while. The main contributor specializes in finding bearish signals, but there are other guest posters on the blog with a variety of viewpoints. Actual tradeable ideas as well. https://slopeofhope.com/

I admittedly have short bias for want of volatility to come back in this market, but agree. Will need to see a weak open followed by a weak close at some point with a SPX cash close below 2700 to get interesting. Bears need all the optimistic bulls that went long over the past two weeks with...

To me the interesting part of ES has moved away from the original diamond, now triangle, to become a range play. Until the cash SPX sets a new higher high above 2787, an abrupt downward takeout to revisit the lows is still possible. The first down move starting after Jan. 26th shed 300 points...

Should be at an inflection point to see where this thing wants to go. Of interest is every time the ES has stalled out on these up moves since the February nut kicker, it has immediately sold off for a week or two. But if it can kick the stall and fall to the curb and muster the strength to...

You can back test that question to learn past performance. For the signal I use, my back testing shows if E1 is stopped out, E2 is net profitable and should be traded. Additionally for the signal I use, if both E1 and E2 are stopped, then entries E3 and E4 are net negative. But this will...

Just going to put this out there for anyone interested in trying something new with NQ, ES or YM. Been trading this live for 3 weeks now. It is an easy approach to add into a winning position using a limited risk amount for a daily trade. No overnight holds. Not interested if anyone thinks...

I've been long on NQ too recently, but looking for the stall and fall play at some point.

Question is how far can they squeeze this. RTY is within spitting distance from all time highs and another 5 - 7 trading days of squeeze could see NQ at ATH too. Hard for me to see ES and YM getting close to ATH in this cycle as they are lagging behind the other two in that respect. I'll be...

That may be true, he may be a poor trader. It may be that simple. But the best cash game poker players in the world often bust out several times in a career. I when I say bust out, I mean got nothing left to gamble with until they convince someone else to stake them. Did they bust out...

Nice analysis of your diamond top assessment Spoozy, especially pointing out we could see a multi hundred point drop and still be in a long term (monthly) uptrend. Hope vol kicks back in over the next couple of weeks leading to that scarole...