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daddyeaux - nothing personal. There is nothing wrong with being pessimistic - but why do you make statement that makes you look like a complete idiot? :cool:

I see - maybe - I don't know. Thanks for a pointer anyway :)

what contract are you talking about? USM7/ZB? or Eurodollars? or else? I do not see anything like that - in ZB there was in fact some buying minutes before the release.

what do you mean? I see spike exactly at 0730....

i don't think so. the fact that it held up is due to new sales coming up in an hour. one good number can cripple this market - it is at crazy levels especially given inflation (yesterday's consumer confidence showed expectations has risen to 5.2%! - wtf). still we have to wait for gdp and pce...

yes - but notice what started it. Not ccy leading Bond but rather the other way round. When zb bounced dolllar was still gaining for several more minutes. what is really happening here is a positioning for this week's data (for all asset classes). so you could say there is a correlation - but...

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D great pic

I do not agree with that at all. Bonds are on the different wavelength as I suggested on Thursday - so far everything spot on.

you are really enlightening boy...

I don't know what you are after but MU is of course correct. Risk neutral probability of an option ending ITM is something quite different from a delta of the option. For instance for a European call the (risk neutral) probability is integral from d2 to +infinity, i.e. N(d2) due to a symetry of...

so what - market misprices FF for the past 3 years...and how many hikes we had?

here we have it again - this time with refernce to a global growth...

good luck.

:confused: are you long or what.... his name is Jaxon

good luck! it is a difficult decision to make, i.e. to forego a safe well payed career job for something as volatile as trading revenues. I did that myself - after many years on Wall Street in a prime house with above average comp (for a prime house) - so I don't talk the talk ;) Some...

here we go - correction despite the non-stellar number. we need some juice for the next week.

one more thing. I always like to look at the market via eurodollars - currently the market has already priced almost full 3 cuts within the next 14 months...that I call RICH :cool:

possibly - but it depends :D here is my thinking: if data comes weak we already had a rally so where do we go? maybe another 10bips and that's it. if data comes strong then the hell breaks loose. Personally I doubt the later - my target for growth is to pick up in the 2nd Q07. So what...

Thanks - I started to have a feeling that I am missing something :) my personal opinion is that this rally was a preparation for the next week (scary data and likely to come below concensus).

by saying that "the best time to sell will cease to exist" do you imply that bonds will go only up from here?:confused: