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the only way to hedge against decline in these bonds is to sell them. :cool:

btw it was under wall street news i think, i.e. definitely not under trading. so what, it was not visible to ET-ers to be discussed - which was moderators intention i guess. ivanovich has some personality problems. he represents the site quality pretty well.

thanks for posting. i agree with him almost 100% - fed will fuck it up once again and this time with the biggest fireworks. i do not believe that low rates (especially short term) support economic activity significantly - they are rather corollary of it. fed should promote a "good"...

japan's default is not in the cards even closely. with respect to greece i do not see why it should have a large impact on treasuries last week - it is smaller than AIG and would be bailed out as well. i am not saying it is irrelevant - just that both greece and japan are not a new info...

well yes and yes. i know that you trade in treasuries as i do so no need to give you a lesson (and vice versa...) i am sure you were watching the tape - that was bloody weird in the past week. maybe because of ben doubts or whatever but strange in any case. on top of that i trade fed funds...

how the hell can people save in this environment? i am basically passing my money for free to let banks earn nice profit on the steep curve. wtf

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akYMsCezpjlk&pos=4 this is effectively what it is - i bet they start conveniently with zero rate paid on excess reserves and let the fed fund rate collapse to about 1-2bps... also explains why such a big rally in treasuries in the past 10...

according to fed funds futures today (which are likely manipulated by ben anyway) we are going to have somebody even more dovish than ben was - or ben will get the job on the basis of not hiking ever again...

of course you are right. call it GS hijack. :cool:

i wonder aloud; will they not be able to hold US treasuries on their own account? LOL or will US treasuries be conveniently excluded? that would basically make a bank a government agent (for a small fee of course) transferring the deposit (earning 0%) to government which would pay say 0.1%...

you could say the same about the consumer, the government, FNM/FRE, the mortgagor etc. look into a mirror jem - you could do better than this BS.

+1

yeah - GS obviously does not like to be a holding company anymore. they want the game the same as pre-crisis... so it happens.

agree. my bet is that they were briefed on everything well in advance, i.e. they made today enough money for the next quarter. hahaha :D

so what - they will move prop trading offshore and stop paying taxes in US (maybe in China? - LOL). that would be like obama pissing in his face...:D

nice - so they trade at P/E = 5. i guess this market is so expensive... :cool:

for instance new CIT bonds offer 9%+ YTM and the company got rid of 11bn of debt via chapter 11. it also got rid of TARP (via default). there is a new high profile board and there will be new CEO soon (hopefuly Thain). within 3 months these bonds are going to tighten by 300bps+. good luck and...

and over 1 year with the crude (scaled) :(

inflating assets is the only thing ben can do well...

for obvious reasons swing trading is more dangerous than scalping if you lack discipline...much more likely to go bust.