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    Who Will They Blame This Time!!!

    i have given a summary of the most popular reasons. i always find it fascinating how the media comes up with thousands of reasons. Personally I blame US housing (affects Asia because Chinese and Japanese have been sending their dollars here for many years to subsidize our mortgages)...
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    Did Today's Market Make you More Bullish/Bearish?

    i am short-term (2-3 days) bullish and longer-term (10-20 days after that) bearish. This is all psychology of market and fear after many months of rampant complacency. needs to work off, but housing is a big issue for next 2-3 years http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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    Can you trade just on feel

    there are 3 principles of trading that are immutable (I hope that is the correct word:) - a trend will more likely continue than reverse - trends end in climax (volume on big move) - momentum precedes price - price alternates between range and contraction I think your friend is watching...
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    Black Monday

    like I posted before, the rallies in this downtrend are better plays now that VIX and put/call ratios are so high. Until those two come down, i am going to game the long plays and leave the shorts to late-comers. Once we rally then i will start shorting rallies. Too much bearishness sentiment...
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    GOOG trading down to 85?

    I think that lows is unlikely. I am thinking more of $417 to $400 area and then the previous rally continues. These guys are still doing very well and growth is still there and very high http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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    New Century Financial Under Criminal Probe; Fremont Quits Subprime Market

    Having seen a few of these kinds of action before, i think NEW is headed for bankruptcy. Not only is business really bad, but now there are criminal probes. I really doubt they will survive that combo http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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    Why I think the decline has only just started

    excellent comments, but don't forget these things didn't happen overnight! many of these issues have been debated for many months already. I am guessing if there is any crisis the governments around the world have become pretty good at walloping whichever side everyone is leaning on!! Just look...
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    Anyone else wondering about the yen carry trades?

    carry trades have just started unwinding last week. This is something that will take months and even maybe years to unwind completely, so expect ups and downs as we go along. Japanese Govt. will do everything to make sure things don't get out of hand, likewise US govt. It's gonna be fun as...
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    Black Monday

    we may drop again Monday (gap down) and even more during the day, but looking at VIX and put/call ratios it seems it is starting to get into "overdone" territory. A bounce is called for based on how everyone is leaning. Remember bounces in down markets can be ferocious as shorts scramble to...
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    Bullish on Crude Oil

    crude has been unable to move fast beyond this trendline I posted Feb 13, 2007. We are still hanging aorund this area and my opinion is we are going down below $43 on USO and I am eventually looking for sub-40 on crude by the summer...
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    Black Week (Mar 5 - 9)

    i am a bear, but i think in short-term we are well oversold and a squeeze is coming before the next plunge. I am positioning to enter short-term long positions as volatility is too high and unsustainable on a relative basis (not absolute basis) http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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    CVX opinions wanted

    my opinion is some bounce is gonna come, but every bounce from now on will be sold unless crude oil starts heading to $70. If crude starts going down or stays around here, then most oil stocks will be sold every time they go up now. Funds/hedgies have already lost money in other areas like...
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    Sub-Prime. Is it worrying anyone?

    Definitely. MS MER GS etc some of the biggest broker/dealers have rolled many products from sub-prime to prime and sliced and diced them into many products that are leveraged and traded and that make them billions of dollars. Also the flood of foreclosures from sub-primes means market gets...
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    GOOG today

    looks like GOOG is determined to close the gap at 430. But weekly trend is still up. Of course if weekly trend goes it will be pretty ominous http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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    Trading Hammers (revisited)

    when you talk about hammers, does that include the "opposite" i.e. shooting stars? I also commented extensively on hanging men candlesticks for the last 2 weeks before the drop this week, especially on $NYA chart. Those hanging men signals delivered unbelievably this week and i was very happy...
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    Bloomberg, Reuters or?????

    by far reuters is better as most other vendors get their news from reuters. i use both reuters and bloomberg, but if i had to choose one I would go for reuters as it is better for individuals as opposed to professionals/institutions http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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    Are we having fun yet?

    best to play on both sides. I use volatility indexes and also put/cal ratios to a smaller extent to signal my long and short entries. Yesterday when we opened with VIX up 22% was an extreme reading best indicator to enter long. If another sell-off comes today will be best for long entry once...
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    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    Many hedge funds are going to feel a great deal of pain especially those involved in the "carry trade" with Japanese yen against other currencies. There will be a great deal of squeezing throughout the month of March as Japanese banks square off their books, and this will be felt in stock...
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    The time 2 buy is now big rally coming

    there might be a rally but it will probably be shorts getting squeezed. After that I doubt a serious rally will come. Housing is starting to be a real concern with subprimes, but the whole market will probably start feeling effects in 2-3 months. Easy money is going away soon with carry trade...
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    How would you play todays events tomorrow morning?

    China came back nicely, not all the way, but enough to show it was all panic profit taking. 3+% today in China. So we may bounce 1-2% here in US and even higher in coming days as the shorts are squeezed one last time. VIX rose way way too high http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
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