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I think this might be a little off topic but I would like to share: :cool:

Do you think players have already priced that in or will there be a big market selloff if Congress doesn't pass it? This is obviously a subjective question, just asking for opinions.

This is for tax purposes

I would like to ask what your opinion of Trump's tax plan is, which was definitely promising but vague yesterday. Do you think the plan is realistic? Maybe US investors think it sounds too good and want to know more of the details before acting. Also, will he be able to pass it through Congress?

I was reading up on bonds on investopedia. This is from their site: " The Timing of a Bond's Cash Flows and Interest Rates The timing of a bond's cash flows is important. This includes the bond's term to maturity. If market participants believe that there is higher inflation on the horizon...

I actually didn't know anything about zerohedge, one of my friends showed him to me in twitter and I fell upon this article.

I was just making an assumption, I stand corrected. However wouldn't it be correct to assume, that even if Japanese investors and funds are buying bonds, they are not doing it in a volume that the BoJ would want for its economic stimulation target, and that's why it steps in with massive...

You got an answer from Martinghoul, my own very simplistic idea of why this happens would be that the BoJ buys all these government bonds, because no Japanese saver is buying them, because of 0 interest rate and weak economy. So probably it's not they intentionally want to crowd out other...

I read your answer, and I think I actually got it. It makes sense. No causation, but risk aversion driving both. 4 pages of bla bla for a simple answer.

Do you mean that because of yen having 0 interest US investors use it to buy other derivatives? Or otherwise can you elaborate on what you mean?

If you were using the yen to purchase US derivatives, the yen should be getting weaker while these derivatives should be getting stronger. Which is not something that this chart shows (it shows JPYUSD and the bonds moving together). Of course, there's many other players outside Japan in these...

You did not show anything like that. You tried to show 6 months of data with some kind of correlation, out of decades of this data. How long did you search for that? I didn't come here to do a google search, I came to ask a very specific question, posting a link to my question as well. When I...

Let's assume you are right, the correlation isn't at all related to the QE program. And that this correlation isn't stable. That's definitely correct, but before you said there are fundamental reasons for this correlation. User Martinghoul mentioned yield spreads, and curvature. What does that...

I'm not sure what your point was in the last post. I have uploaded weekly USDJPY, and weekly 10 year bond, starting 2010. I think you have just uploaded a selective 6 months of data where there might coincidentally have been some correlation. Once more, I'm saying you should be looking at...

BoJ have said that they are going to continue their asset purchase program at least till the end of 2018, since inflation is only just picking up. So I would assume that it actually is still relevant? https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm/

Even in 2014, when the BoJ upped its QE program to 80 trillion yen, there was no strong correlation. I see the correlation starting from perhaps a month before the US election in November 2016. I'm looking at Tradingview FV1 and 6J monthly charts.

Ok so when I overlay a chart of 6j futures over a chart of 5 year bond, what is the reason for their very high correlation? It is not a fundamentals reason from what I understand. Is it just randomness? I would like to dig a little deeper in understanding whether this is the case.

This was my understanding as well, that QE would generally be a domestic thing. So this is why I asked why this correlation appears. The article's author doesn't believe it is coincidental, but I can't understand the point he wants to get across either.

It does show the USDJPY numbers, but look at a USDJPY chart and a 5 year note chart, they are almost opposite. Now if you put the 6j future (which is JPYUSD) you'll see the same movements.

Ok I think I understood, but have one problem with this: The article is basically showing the JPY/USD following the 5 year rate so closely, not the USD/JPY. Which is why I think I'm missing something.