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The stock is expecting imminent test results - so everybody is gambling on that stock price.

Here's a simple back test of your strategy. You come closest to selling the 40 delta and buying the 20 delta ones. So as you can see its a winner about one out of two times. I varied the parameters to manage risk and for example bail if you lose more than 100% of the net credit but that cuts out...

"Sometimes my short positions are early assigned and my account automatically has a margin violation because I have to buy a lot of shares." What do you trade in that that happens? Early assignment is rare except around dividend payments. It occasionally happens around expiration if there are...

Well that smells to high heaven for sure. Did you or anyone else report this to the SEC?

If the executives had any knowledge or possibility to have knowledge of the breach they are fools. What they do is public and of course they would be found out. The put transaction is more evidently suspect - I am sure this will be investigated to the fullest. It should be said that in that case...

LOL

You cannot take the efficient market hypothesis to extremes as you are doing there because there is a legal ban on insider information sharing. Therefore by definition all information is not available in the market and therefore the market CANNOT be totally efficient at all times and under all...

As others have pointed out open interest is not an indicator of market direction in a linear sense - like lots of open calls is bullish. The open interest could be buyers but they may also be sellers as in both cases the market maker can be the counterparty. Having said that open interest does...

As Napoleon said, no plan survives contact with the enemy. What helped was that the stock took a tumble from the start. After the loony half hour ended ,I started the day out by trying to close the spreads. As luck would have it the SEP short calls closed more or less at theoretical value. I...

There is no 'strategy' to make 900% - there is only blind luck.

"The greeks exist for vendors and authors so they have something to sell." Err ... no. They are simply mathematical derivations that can be calculated with any commercially available spreadsheet. They are no more useful or useless than the speedometer in your car.

LOL - you misread what I wrote - its a SHORT STORY - so fiction.

OP I am reminded of a short story my father once gave to me. It was called the 'Man who couldn't lose' and detailed the story of a guy who always won in a casino. He didn't bet much but every bet he placed was a winner. At the end of his life he whispered his secret to his children: 'When you...

The very first thing you should do is to forget your high-watermark. Every day you start at 0.

Ok I have put Labour day to good use and modelled things as best I could. The big question is what happens to volatility if I am pushed beyond earnings without being able to close the trade. This has a non-negligible impact on the outcome, in fact if you choose very high volatilities for...

Its the thought that counts.

Here's another reason not to wait till expiry: OTM options will have a swift drop and then the curve bends back. You got lucky that the drop occurred real fast in your trade but you are basically standing at the midpoint and the theta decay will be slower and slower. In the mean time you...

460% on paper is nothing - its when you exited the trade(s) and you can spend the money that it counts., If you want to brag - I made 11,000% (annualised return basis) on one earnings trade on Oracle last year. I opened a short straddle two days before earnings (and expiration), the stock moved...

Double check the final price - options technically expire on Saturday for stocks and for indexes there can also be different dates. A post option trading move in the underlying is certainly a possible reason why the owner of the options chose not to execute.

Its impossible to be prepared at all times for a Black Swan, be fully invested in the market and not lose substantially (either in real or in profits foregone) due to the high cost of 'insurance'. Any hedging choice is therefore a trade-off that should fit within your general investment...