Search results

lol this drop is nothing

Not raising the debt ceiling is most likely short term pain, long term gain.

Economy A has debt 100% of GDP, taxes/revenues are 20% of GDP. Economy B has 80% debt of GDP but taxes/revenues are 40% of GDP. The deficit is the same for both. Witch economy will best be able to handle an increase in interest rates from say 3% to 10%?

Most traders are not intelligent enough to figure things out, and even if they are they are not organized enough to come up with a plan, and even if they do they dont have the discipline to execute, and even if they do they are too rigorous to dynamically adapt to changing market conditions, and...

In the context of contagion, sorting high quality from low quality, what is risk what is not, greek bonds probably do not have negative correlations with stocks for a reason, gold did the last two days, what happens a sunny day does not matter much since it often is the case that both stocks and...

most likely because both stocks and bonds went down yesterday, but yeah, noteworthy

I agree, its possible..

Last time I checked household debt to income in Norway was close to 200% compared to "only" 120% in the US, hard to say whats sustainable and whats not.

Currently 10 year bonds are yielding 3% and 30 year bonds are yielding 4%, if deflation takes a firmer hold it only means it will be possible for the US to roll over debt at a lower cost. As much as I love anarchy inflation is the greather threat, if inflation takes hold higher rates and a...

Is not anything but a two party system an invitation to make libertarianism impossible? I know I have 8 parties to vote for and the government here is bigger than most places. If there are so many groups to fight for why would it be possible to have more than one party fighting for less...

It is obvious only lower taxes or a bigger deficit is the only thing that can ever lead to reduced wealth distribution that is either just or unjust.

LOL, the market is forward looking?

Okey your definition: A bubble is when an asset becomes insanely overvalued such that even the most optimistic assessment of the fundamentals gives us a a valuation way lower than the current price. Assume 7% inflation in average the next 30 years (not impossible) do you think bonds will...

What you in essence are doing is defining out the existence of bubbles. Nobody knows for sure inflation or deflation. Most people think 0.95% inflation, nobody can dismiss this as implausible, this does not mean bonds cannot be in a bubble, what most people think or not is irrelevant, it is a...

Oh the REITs, I had them, dont miss them much, they are still way below where I sold them URE and SRS almost perfect inverse correlation then WTF, short URE and long SRS is how I intuitively would play them, I believe deflation will continue for a while so I will hold on to corporate bonds...

Unless markets follows a hidden plan for most people the realism isnt that great Tells could be given to those capable of seeing them Buried in a book, to abstract for most to see you study you pay no corruption involved One cycle could be x number of years, make it longer than...

interesting question, I guess it would depend on how much credit I could scoop up knowing about the duration with almost certainty would probably be worth more, pyramiding 8 years compared to 5 makes a huge difference

A rock will always be hard if it is a rock, whether you believe it or not, if you dont believe me I can throw one at you and change your view but that would not be very helpful of me

f**k Obama, but trust me what you are claiming is not always true

Seems like he wrote what he wrote in a nonsensical way to provoke a response in a given direction.. anyway when a recession hits Y=GDP goes down the whole point of keynesian interventions is to offset this. My point is simply this works until it doesnt.