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What's your take on this?: "Bear market: sharp, but short-lived rallies sprinkled in amongst an ongoing downtrend. The rallies are so fierce that, at face value, they appear to be an end to the decline. But since they have no follow-through to them, the bears continually reassert their...

remember that fund managers don't have near the incentive we do to make 50%+ returns. If you were making a $3Mil salary with 25% returns, why fix it? Also managing $300 million is very different to managing $50k. 100% in 6 months on a $50k account is not uncommon for experienced retail traders...

McMillan gives a lot of actual examples in a very teachable form. I first read his books then spent about a year learning from the markets with these tools: http://www.prophet.net/quotes/options.jsp http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/options/greeks.aspx...

maybe you guys can weigh in here on the average returns of various option spreads, per your experience. I have read on several occasions that, historically speaking, put-selling still brings the best net returns over time. True/false?

profitable methods: direction neutral option trading more reliable: predicting volatility, not direction willing to work: McMillan on Options Option Pricing and Volatility Statistics for Dummies Probability for Dummies

Disillusionment, demoralization, and depression are instincts to get us out of the fight before we get killed. Heed them. Avoid the pride-redemption reflex to die trying. Regroup and and cool off over a few days. This is obviously where the psychological gremlins take out a lot of traders. Wait...

pain is the best teacher

I know I'm not the only one who looks for these quick pops - the idea is 1. a liquid stock/option with good potential energy 2. a quick move during exp week 3. a nearby very cheap option in the predicted move 4. Some response in the OTM option ask price before placing the trade 5...

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/unusually_high_option_volume.aspx

I'll tell you the whole secret of trading, real simple. Observe, measure, hypothesize, test. Everything, that is.

http://www.hoadley.net/options/demosaddin.aspx

yes, look for heavy open interest in the nearest month deeply out of the money (several strikes out) options 5 days prior to earnings announcements. It should all be heavily weighted on one side (call or put). It must be so obvious that it precludes analysis. This indicates leveraged insider buying.

Well we can add (to the 4 fears) impatience, revenge, depression and addiction, they all have the power to wreck one's system. For example, depression of losing gains leading to fear of a repeat leading to impatience leading to partial profit taking leading to revenge trading leading to...

LOL! That makes the ET quick comeback classic file :D to the poster, try this link http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/021804.asp

well, the reversing put/call ratio for XLE strongly suggests a pullback in the near-term; the weekly chart shows a channel extreme - so for stocks I'd just wait for futures, the slightest news of diplomatic resolution will pop this geopolitical bubble quick into a short-term pullback; no...

Wow I am again impressed but not surprised by the depth of our members. Noting this is in the Psy section/Trading for a living: Definitely Rem. of a Stock Operator Definitely the Market Wizards series, major psych value here. Elder has some very good sections for the newb (although I...

For the original poster: Yes, there are many benefits as described; however be aware the market news makers are paid to make meaningless ticks and data as controversial, sensational, and meaningful as possible. If you base your trading on news hype then you'll pay for it dearly.

grab some onion dip and a good chair.. http://www.iseoptions.com/webinar.aspx http://www.888options.com/seminars/webcasts.jsp http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/priorWebinars.php?ib_entity=llc

Observe actual option prices http://www.prophet.net/quotes/options.jsp and IV http://www.ivolatility.com/ model them with this http://www.hoadley.net/options/demosaddin.aspx apply your knowledge of stats and probability to estimate standard error, outliers, regression, risk of ruin...

yes, a very common conundrum, mine is further amplified since I only make 4-6 trades per month, waiting for 2nd sigma events. But I do papertrade analyses on various option spreads constantly and seek to come up with new or refined predictive models. This part I find exciting and look forward to...