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Any false method, including "trend" following, will yield success to some degree, otherwise it would be negatively correlated to the market, which is an edge. Trends exist only in the past, so traders on trend have made money in the past, but only as luck has provided for them. The theory of...

Funny you should mention that, because I was just reminded of a debate I had a few weeks ago with someone who resorted to the same technique of using fallacies of logic in lieu of a cogent response. The difference is that this other fellow was very intelligent and made quite a contest of it...

Any false method, including "trend" following, will yield success to some degree, otherwise it would be negatively correlated to the market, which is an edge. Trends exist only in the past, so traders on trend have made money in the past, but only as luck has provided for them. The theory of...

What a drawn out excuse for not stepping up to the plate.

Q: What will be the standard of proof? A: One step at a time. I'm still waiting for something to work with. Once a proper method is put forward, we'll see. It should only take a few days at most. Q: Do I admit that publicly available methods work? A: Yes, and the other 19 out of 20 blow up.

For a few reasons I won't go into here, this computer is restricted as to what it can download. Consequently, I'm asking you to refrain from using a "display" in making your points and to limit yourself to words on the page when describing your method. As for the value of d, it needs to be...

Thanks for the kind sentiment (which I suppose was directed toward me). Here's wishing you luck in finding enough courage to respond to my challenge.

The issue of whether or not "current trends can be projected into the future" is beside the point. The answer is obvious. That's not what is under contention. Here is the genuine article again, since no one has answered the challenge: Any false method, including "trend" following, will...

You're drifting away from reality.

Off topic: If anyone's curious, I started getting into the trading mode of scalping during December of last year. Before that and currently, my styles have included longer-term daytrading as well as the occasional swing. So what?

Hey, I'd like to be wrong on this one. Surf some trends while having a few of beers after the open, then hit the beach for the real thing by noon. Oh, what a world it would be!

First off, you literally replied to my challenge by quoting it in your post. You used "pontifications" as a pejorative, so you engaged in a personal attack. Whether or not I choose to scalp for nickels has no bearing on the validity of the arguments I put forward here.

Specify a combination of publicly available tools that can be used to determine a number d such that | p1 - p0 | is greater than or equal to d, where p1 is a near-future price and p0 is the current market price. As far as proof goes, any proposed method, in this case price trend following...

Thank you for the considered response. The specific criteria are met, or not, in an experimental setting. Not that it proves anything, but I'm immediately skeptical of the efficacy of such a system considering how much of your competition is looking for a method along just those lines...

Of course there are "trends" that persist into the future. Again, that's not the issue. The point is that there is no combination of publicly available tools that can be used to determine a specific minimum difference between present and near-future price based on past price action. Your...

Did you read my post before you replied? I'm not asking for "information that will confirm the usefulness of trends." There is virtually unlimited apparent or partial confirmation and contradiction on this topic. That's why I'm cutting to the chase with a precise proposition that any...

The variety of the principle of market efficiency I have been citing says that all publicly available information and techniques are already in the market price, because there's no way for the individual trader to reliably compete against the resources and access of the collective competition...

What significance do you attribute to that saying in the present discussion?

What a wimpy reply to the challenge I presented. Is that the best you got, an off-topic personal attack?

Some general comments, since this computer doesn't work with pdf. Any false method, including "trend" following, will yield success to some degree, otherwise it would be negatively correlated to the market, which is an edge. Trends exist only in the past, so traders on trend have made money...