Search results

My point is that nothing you have said supports WXYZ's assertion that price is probability. A panel showing bins of prices is irrelevant -- standard deviation is not a predictive variable, it's literally the square root of the variance of your sample.

Ok nice panel (/sarcasm), where's the evidence that your ex-post signal is predictive ex-ante? It still doesn't mean price is probability.

That guy is an idiot, and if you think you can make an accurate prediction of a stock price using fibonacci retracements or standard deviation, then you're not far behind.

The existence of the Fibonacci sequence is not evidence that price is probability.

Huh ...? Please write out the math of what you just stated.

Standard deviation is not probability.

This is what you said: This is what I said:

Lol that's exactly my point... if you were right then options in strikes above ATH would be 0. The fact that there is premia for prices in strikes above ATH is evidence that price is not probability. Limmys Show: Whats heavier a kilogram of steel or a kilogram of feathers (youtube.com)

That is not "price is probability"... but it's still wrong. If a stock has not moved more than 5% in your sample, it does not mean that the probability of a stock moving >5% is 0. Were you the guy buying Lehman shares right before it went bankrupt?

Lol we are back to square one. If price is probability then you can't get higher prices because the probability of a nonobserved price is 0. You gotta stop with the recursive thinking. For the "quants" thingy that you tried to explain, where "if the quant criteria is met then stock goes up 10%"...

Ok so I take that as a "no" re: my earlier question. :rolleyes: Sounds like you agree -- price does not equal probability.

Nope lol, and a “measured move” or whatever still doesn’t explains how you can get higher prices if your sample is all lower. Do you even know an actual quant (besides a “friend” who “codes” and has a “trading bot”)? Because I regret to inform you that you don’t know what you’re talking about...

Read Peter Attia :-)

Lol so tell me how a stock price can be higher than its past high if that higher price does not exist in the sample? It would register as a probability of 0 in your world. Yes quants use price data, but they're conducting analysis on returns not on levels. Stock prices are nonstationary.

lol dude are you really trying to flex with an old lambo? That’s my daily var, and I’m “small”. But yes please tell me more about how the chart forecasts everything… :rolleyes: What you see on the chart is historical prices and realized vol. Sure you can try to ride momentum or bet on mean...

I'm just teasing. Moderation is good, but having healthy habits is even better.

Do you also drive your car by only looking at the rear view mirror?

"Ultra processed foods are good for you!!" says obese forum poster. Next up, "why working out is secretly killing you." :rolleyes:

Lol what gibberish are you speaking? RenTech was primarily concerned with microstructure and winning share as markets went through "disintermediation" -- but even those dislocations are quite constrained and they had to limit the capital they deploy. "therefore earnings reports have no affect...

The juice exists because it is hard. Information that’s relevant to revenue, margins, and cash flow will change the estimates of future earnings (and long-term growth rate), which drives the price. A fluctuation in a stock price from $155.56 to $155.87 back to $155.43 is typically just a...