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Isn't it possible for you to run a backtest on these markets for the last 3 to 5 years ? That would prove some more than just 2 months of paper testing (which seem to include some parameters tweaking). IMHO.

Automate your trading, and let the computer do the trading. Discipline then becomes mostly a matter of watching w/o interfering with your systems. It's taken me a couple years to do it, some days it feels stupid when I "knew better" than the computer (that happened to me on Friday :), but way...

There is a drop of P/F which started pretty much August 1st 2011 ... does not correlate with recent drop in trade frequency.

For my CL reversal system, the last 4 months have generated 34 trades (~ 1 every 2.4 day). From June to November 2011, the number of trades for last 4 months was in the 70-80 range (~1 every day). In Jan/Feb/Mar 2011, it was in the 30-35 range (~1 every 2.5 day). From Feb to Dec 2009, it was in...

I was lucky enough in a prior career to have a coach for a couple years (she was doing about 1/2 sports coaching, 1/2 business coaching, and on the sports side she had been coaching at least one very famous tennis champion). One of the key things I learned from her was to stop comparing myself...

This is a great example to work from ... the "signal" you are following is Highs & Lows. Price-prints in between are not (necessarily) noise, most often merely transition from 1 signal point (high or low) to the next (low or high). Noise is what makes an irrelevant price-print becomes a...

I say that the "noise" I see depends on what "signal" (market behavior) I am tracking, and the way to (try to) filter that "noise" also depends on what "signal" I am tracking.

No offense, but this is an oversimplified view that ends-up wrong. You are confusing signal lack-of quality with noise. I would bet you are not a musician. Wikipedia has a long article on noise, of which the 1st sentence is a good start for the purpose of this thread: "In physics and analog...

I believe "noise" hinders traders at 2 levels ... at the highest level (trading plan), it makes it difficult to identify these behaviors (patterns/structures/...) that could produce a system w/ positive expectation, because a particular behavior is scattered through many others behaviors plus a...

Very easily, actually ... I keep track of the bar# for each pivot, from that I can retrieve not only all information that pertains to that pivot bar (including its timestamp), but also a great variety of information re. what happened since last pivot, or in-between pivots (elapsed time...

As if starting to sim-trade in a vacuum was better ?! I am quite on the opposite end of the spectrum ... I believe that reading a minimum of 30 trading books (I can provide a list of the books I consider "must-read") is a necessary step before ever loading a charting package on a PC. I would...

I have to agree with this - and *only* with this :) It is much faster to backtest trading ideas than forward test them. Of course, backtesting results are not always indicative of future performance, but neither are forward testing results, especially when the sample size is small (say less...

Not sure what a simple frequency filter trading strategy is ... would you mind elaborating on this?

I have developed many (automated) trading systems, mostly based off price-action (swing H/L), using range chart and volume charts. I never had any reasonable resiliency to market noise & volatility changes, until I started to use price, time & volume all together to identify these swing H/L...

Really not perfect it seems ... look at your exit Buy shown 814.2 when price is trading about 817 at that time. Idem for 1st entry Long shown 814.3 when price is about 815.

I came across this chart on a different forum ... I have no idea what any of this represents, but it sure is very pretty.

+1

My systems only trade based off price-action, so price pivots (aka swing H/L) are what they rely on. I have always used fib ratios (retracements & expansions / extensions) as a way to dynamically adapt entry/exit levels to volatility. Ironically, I never trusted any classic indicator as...

I only trade automated these days, and my only goal wrt execution is to meet the system theoretical performance (which for me means no overriding of any system decision). Even though it is allegedly easy to do with automated systems, it still takes a huge belief in that it is not the current...

IMHO, there are really to separate categories of trading / traders: intraday & swing/position. - Intraday trading is the most difficult to get consistently profitable at, and there ain't that many books or disclosed methods/systems that offer cookie-cutter replicable profitability (none to...