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I'd wait after Bernanke speech at 3.30pm

Momentarily close my paper short at 1740.25 +17 pts at present Max drawdown 17.25 pt which lasted 9 days from entry (even if at first trade was profitable)

Generic Trade is an IB for Ironbeam, Zumo is a division of Ironbeam. With Zumo you pay 50 cents instead of 59. If you use Firetip you have no cost for the platform. I you keep at least 15000$ you have no monthly fees. Though they don't show,they offer also Eurex (even though sometimes they...

Maybe there was a typo in your information, it was October 2031 instead of October 2013? :D

Paper short ES at 1757.25

To get a better idea, I took the values of SP500 Total Return at http://ycharts.com/indices/%5ESPXTR: Current SPTR:3150 SPTR on Jun 1988:271 - return on last 25 years=10,3% SPTR on Jan 1999:1670 - return on last 14 years=4,6% For the standard index: Current SP:1763 SP on Jun 1988:271 -...

I want to gain a lot of "paper" money, but most of all... I want to do The Halloween Short :)

For me what's bearish is that they didn't increase QE. Now 85 billions/month are too few :D

Still not convinced. Are firms which failed taken into account?Are firms with no dividend taken into account? Is the tradingjournals' survivor bias taken into account? How is average computed? Note that dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the stock price at that time, not of the...

Is it the net after taxes that goes into investors pockets?

I didn't think about the survivor bias in indexes, but I think their quotes are still quite representative of the behaviour of all stocks. See for example NASDAQ100 and NASDAQ Composite (for many indexes around the world you find both the selection and the total). I took the DJIA as a...

I think so.Tomorrow I will paper short the ES.

I took the Dow quotes as an example for all most important stocks, but dividends is another matter: they vary too much. And where did you find dividend yield for years 1890-1950? Because if you are serious (are you?), you surely have compounded the dividend yield year after year,or a reliable...

Where do you find 3% a year? Statistics say for example something like 2,3% for SP500 and 1,4% for NASDAQ, but we don't have the average for ALL stocks (I think the average could be less). Then there is taxation, and this varies among countries. Then it depends if you reinvest them or not...

Buffet 20% a year was luck (besides his skills) due to this special period (1970-2000). Buffet himself knows that and in 2000 said "I won't be able to achieve the same returns in the future".

Hey guys, how about learning some math and picking up correct data? Are you able to use a calculator? From Wikipedia: Dow Jones starting year: 1884 Dow Jones starting value: 62.76 Now let's compute returns. DJ current value approx: 15700 Ratio Now/Beginning: 15700/62.76 = 250.16 N. of...

Don't worry, I know mathematics and know what I'm saying. Mine are not statistics (I'd need a book to write the whole thing down, including inflation, dividends, comparison with bonds, etc) nor a technical demonstration of anything which would be too long for this thread or any thread; these...

Nikkei Dec 1989: 39000, today 14300, avg return per year=8%? Nasdaq Composite Mar 2000: 5000, today 4000, avg return per year=8%? S&P500 Mar 2000: 1500, today 1770, avg return per year=8%? FTSEMIB Mar 2000: 53000, today 19300, avg return per year=8%? don't know as a trader, but...

If you use words like "by far" you may have already done enough analysis, at least at an unconscious level. Let me tell you my experience.I began with system trading because I thought I couldn't rely on my "impressions" for discretionary trading. I built my system, tested over thousands and...

When in summer Bernanke announced a possible tapering,before a not so big market decline there was a good spike up. Even if they are not like in 2007, these moves can still be dangerous