What the Fed does or doesn't do is of no relevance to the market. 5, 10, 15, 20 years from now no one will be talking about the Fed.
There will be plenty of other memes to justify why the market "will keep going up forever"..
Does anyone realise <b>how much</b> the economy needs to grow in order merely to catch up with where the stock market is right now?
We would need pre 2007 Chinese growth figures.
The reason your results look so good on paper is because you have made one or both of the most elementary of mistakes:
1) Over optimised to past data
2) Failed to take trading costs into account
(No. 2 actually leads to some amazing systems even if you don't curve fit..)
Have another look.
Exactly. Any "manipulator", no matter how big or small, is just a buyer or seller (or neither).
I frankly don't see anything other than a cyclical rally from the March 2009 lows. Same as it ever was.
Nobody and nothing can ever manipulate the market.
People, corporations and central banks can either buy, sell or sit tight. From time to time they can publicise their views and/or intentions. That's it.
See? No manipulation.
Let's re-phrase this, imagining it's early 2000:
I think the main question is "Can stocks go down despite the internet" (i.e. will the correlation between rising stock market and the new economic paradigm continue indefinitely?)
You seem to have totally missed the fact that the market has gone up practically <b>every goddam day</b> since last November. This is an easy money market. You just buy, or buy more.
Warren Buffet switches to cash (and gets laughed at) when most people decide they want to make the easy money...